Dogged By High Casualties, Kremlin Cannot Expand Beyond Limited Attacks

Persistently high casualties are contributing to the Russian military's inability to expand beyond occasional limited tactical gains. The Russian army's operational deficiencies make it incapable of larger strategic successes. 

ISW and other informed observers believe that as long as NATO continues to provide Ukraine with support, the Russians limitations thwart any ambitions it may have to conduct effective large scale operations. These failures of command, logistics, weaponry and troop motivation are expected to persist through next year. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

The Kremlin remains constrained by persistently high casualties in its war against Ukraine. Russian forces are unable to open a new front or expand recent limited attacks in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are sustaining manpower inflows sufficient to replace losses, but they cannot seize new territory without redeploying troops from other sectors and are unable to form a strategic reserve. Redeployments frequently leave flanks undermanned, creating vulnerabilities that allow Ukrainian forces to counterattack and reclaim ground. Ukraine’s recapture of much of Kupiansk was made possible by Russia’s concentration of forces elsewhere along the front line and the absence of ready reserves. The Russian army is incapable of conducting rapid, large-scale operational advances.

Russia is currently unable to form a strategic reserve and will therefore be forced to advance slowly and at high cost along the front lines next year, according to a Dec. 27 assessment by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said Russia has already fulfilled its 2025 recruitment plan of 403,000 troops and is likely to exceed that target by the end of the year. He added that Moscow can continue recruiting for an extended period given its population size and financial resources, and plans to increase mobilization to 409,000 troops in 2026. ISW analysts note that the Kremlin may attempt to form a strategic reserve but remains constrained by persistently high casualties in its war against Ukraine.

 

Russian forces are currently sustaining manpower inflows sufficient to replace losses, but analysts say they cannot seize new territory without redeploying troops from other sectors. Such redeployments frequently leave flanks undermanned, creating vulnerabilities that allow Ukrainian forces to counterattack and reclaim ground.

Ukrainian troops recently liberated territory north of Huliaipole while Russian forces were pushing into the city center. Ukrainian units also regained ground on the Dobropillia axis during Russia’s offensive toward Pokrovsk in early November, the report said. Analysts added that Ukraine’s recapture of much of Kupiansk was made possible by Russia’s concentration of forces elsewhere along the front line and the absence of ready reserves.

According to ISW, Russian forces are currently unable to open a new front or significantly expand recent limited attacks in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

Despite Russia’s large population, analysts stress that the military’s limited operational capacity significantly constrains its ability to conduct large-scale offensives. These limitations are likely to persist through next year, ISW said. As a result, Russian forces are unlikely to dramatically increase the pace or scale of their advances in 2026 if Western support for Ukraine remains at current levels.

At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to make misleading claims about battlefield progress and suggests that Russian forces could escalate operations at any moment.

ISW analysts also note that Russia’s slow advances are not solely the result of manpower shortages. The Russian Defense Ministry has adapted its forces for positional warfare rather than maneuver warfare, leaving the army incapable of conducting rapid, large-scale operational advances.