Putin's Decision-Making Remains Detached From Reality As Ukraine Strengthens

On day 1461 of Putin's three or ten day war - whichever you choose - Ukraine's most recent successes suggest that Putin's decision-making remains divorced from battlefield reality. 

It is apparent to most informed observers that he cannot negotiate for peace - or even a ceasefire - because even the poor, politically irrelevant relatives of the 1.25 million Russian casualties in Ukraine will demand some sort of result that justifies their loved one's deaths or dismemberment. But the harsh reality is that the Ukrainians are not yielding and the Russians are not gaining.  All while his war economy is evidently faltering. And because Trump does not like losers, Putin cannot rely on him, especially as the American President eyes Russia's allies in Venezuela and Cuba. In short, this is not an anniversary Putin is likely to want to remember. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

The Russian theory is that a few more big pushes might work. We have seen this logic before in war, and it never ends well. The disconnect between Russian strategy and demonstrated Ukrainian resilience suggests – again – that Putin’s decision-making remains detached from battlefield reality. During February 10-17, Russian forces actually lost19 square miles of territory—slightly less than Manhattan Island. This represents a dramatic reversal from preceding weeks. Putin is considering an involuntary reserve call-up to sustain Russian ground offensive operations. This indicates that the model employed since 2022 – emptying jails and offering huge recruitment bonuses – is reaching the end of its sustainable life. A new model for provision of warm bodies is required to backfill the 1000 casualties a day that Russia is suffering.

The Russian theory of the case is that while it may not have worked yet, a few more big pushes might work. We have seen this logic before in war, and it never ends well. The disconnect between Russian strategy and demonstrated Ukrainian resilience suggests – again – that Putin’s decision-making remains fundamentally detached from battlefield reality.

 The past week witnessed what has been a somewhat rare tactical development on of the frontline in recent times: Ukrainian forces liberated nearly 300 square kilometres so far this month. This represents the most land retaken by Ukrainian forces in such a concentrated period since 2023.

The geographic focus of Ukrainian gains cantered on the Zaporizhzhia oblast, specifically the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions. According to Russia Matters’ analysis of ISW data for February 10-17, Russian forces actually lost19 square miles of Ukrainian territory—slightly less than the area of Manhattan Island. This represents a dramatic reversal from preceding weeks when Russian forces maintained consistent offensive momentum.

The catalyst for these recent Ukrainian counter attacks was the Starlink shutdown for Russian forces in Ukraine. AFP reporting indicates that Ukrainian forces “took advantage of a Starlink shutdown for Russian forces” to conduct these operations.

The tactical impacts of the past couple of days may take some time to assess fully. While Ukraine has taken back territory, and degraded Russian drone forces that have built operational command and control models around Starlink communications, this is unlikely to change the overall trajectory of the war. But it has complicated Russian planning for Spring offensive operations in the south and potentially drawn Russian reserves from elsewhere. Both of these are good, if short term, impacts for Ukraine. 

It is worth noting that in the east, Russia continues its efforts to execute an operational double envelopment of the fortress belt. While this is moving slowly, it still continues to be Russia’s main effort in the east. However, given the very slow rates of advance, the chances of Russia seizing this ground in 2026 are low.

Russia continues its Putin was considering an involuntary reserve call-up to sustain Russian ground offensive operations in Ukraine. This indicates that the model employed by the Russians since 2022 – emptying jails and offering huge recruitment bonuses – is reaching the end of its sustainable life. A new model for continuous provision of warm bodies is required to backfill the 1000 casualties a day that Russia is suffering in Ukraine.

The quality of Russian personnel also continues to decline. Leaked messages from a senior Russian general documented on February 19 revealed concerns about weaknesses in the training of soldiers and officers in the Russian Army. He also admitted to the systematic abuse of Ukrainian POWs, including sharing photographs of severed human ears. This adds to years of evidence about Russian war crimes, its systemic nature and how Russian commanders view it as integral part of Russian military operations.