Decimus reports in Daily Kos:
2026 was (supposed) to be the year in which Zaporizhzhia City (as well as the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant) became Russian propaganda coups as a dispirited Ukraine caved. But Ukraine's unanticipated, vicious and devastating counter punch into the Russian underbelly in Zaporizhia upended what it had done since last summer as well as the Kremlin's plans for 2026. Russian forces are now 'spinning their wheels halfway to their intended staging positions." The tempo of Russian advances nearly halted. Ukrainian units struck across multiple axes: Oleksandrivka, along the Haichur River, northwest of Huliaipole and liberated Dobropillia. These actions were 80 kilometers east of Zaporizhzhia City, an area where Russian forces had made progress since summer. The strategic impact of reversing Russian momentum is substantial.
In the Fall of 2022 when Russian red covered a goodly part of Kharkiv Oblast and northeastern Donetsk oblast on maps, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, a Kharkiv city-born and bred son of Russian parents who had worked in Ukraine(they’re now retired back in Russia), unleashed on September 6, Ukraine’s 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive which resulted in Ukraine recapturing approximately 12,000 square kilometers of territory.
Ukrainian forces broke through Russian lines to retake strategically important cities like Izyum and Kupiansk and pushed Russian troops east of the Oskil River and its huge reservoir. Ukraine also swung through the Serebryansky Forest Reserve and were knocking at the door of Kreminna and looking to storm Stepove. And as kos so much wished and enthused about in his regular analyses back then, a push towards the key Russian rail hub at Starobilsk, in Luhansk oblast was in the offing.
Abandoned Russian arms and munitions lay everywhere to be harvested by Ukrainians as they kept up the chase. And so were the unhappy grim sights of Russian bodies littered all along the escape routes. Some real gruesome sights seen on video. Those poor abandoned, emaciated and hungry dogs could not be blamed for their scavenging. It was altogether heady stuff which left the world agog and in disbelief at Ukraine’s stunning feat. Those Ukrainians could actually take the fight to the Russians and maybe even win, became an article of faith for some of us. And we still believe.
The offensive disrupted Russian supply lines, encircled and in less than a month also liberated the critically important city of Lyman in northeast Donetsk oblast on 1 October. By the time Winter came and slowed up the Ukrainian offensive, over 500 Ukrainian settlements had been liberated. The success was attributed to strategic planning by Syrskyi, use of Western-supplied HIMARS, and effective information operations that caused confusion and panic among Russian forces.
And now, if recent events are to be credited, it just may be happening again, this time at the junction point of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts or as General Sysrskyi has taken to calling it, the “intersection”. Whilst keeping Pokrovsk under unrelenting pressure from all sides, Russian high command must have paid heed to one of Igor “Strelkov” Girkin’s prison letters in which he stressed that Pokrovsk and Donetsk had become a resource-sucking bottomless pit for Russia and that the place to really go after Ukraine was in Zaporizhia. Get around and behind the fortified Ukrainian defensive lines in central to western Zaporizhia and all of Ukraine will become wide open, Girkin wrote. So Russia started sliding ever so slowly towards the “intersection”.
At first dismissed as “propaganda” by Ukraine, the Russians suddenly pounced, forcing a crossing of the Haichur(Hanchur) and eventually the Huliaipole rivers to get into Huliaipole city itself. The two rivers which Ukraine had counted on as defensive strong points covered by lightly armored Territorial Guards buckled under relentless and enormous Russian pressure. Huliaipole was all but taken, nearby settlements fell one after the other. And if the Russians made it as far northeast as Pokrov’ske in Zaporizhia, the critically important E-50 logistical highway to Pokrovsk would be cut. Not only that but the Russians could make an end run behind the Ukrainian fortifications in the east and in the west, take advantage of the now dry and forested destroyed Kakhovka dam reservoir bed and basically have a clear two-way march to Zaporizhia city or at a minimum get to the point where they could take the home of over 700,000 people under tube artillery fire:
New threat in Zaporizhzhia: Russia commits 120,000 troops to advance
2026 was going to be the year in which Zaporizhia City(as well as the nearby Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant) became uncontested Russian propaganda coups ... as a dispirited Ukraine, still groggy from a winter of steady missile and drone pummeling could be pushed to cave in at the Donetsk “Fortress Belt” and come under huge propaganda and political pressure from Putin and Krasnov to “cry uncle”. Russia would have the upper hand and could dictate terms of Ukraine’s capitulation.
That was Putin and Russia’s plan. Syrskyi, of course had to respond to the new threat. But his response was totally not what Putin and Russia expected. A business-like General Syrskyi just made like one of his regular weekly press updates and announced on Facebook that Ukrainian forces were counter-attacking in southern Ukraine. No big production, no video tape of the CinC visiting and marshaling the troops, no media hoopla getting everyone all worked up into a fizz … as was the prelude to the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive. For the unassuming Syrskyi, it was just another day’s report from the office. The public’s first inkling of how big a thing he, Syrskyi, was working on came a week later:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are conducting effective counterattacks in the Gulyaipole area: Syrsky provided details
“I visited several command posts of brigades and regiments involved in active combat operations in the Aleksandrovsk area and in the Hulyaipole region. I held working meetings with the Airborne Assault Troops commander and the commanders of airborne assault and assault units,” the commander-in-chief noted.
But what a thing the whole world now knows of what Syrskyi had been working on out there in the fields of southern Ukraine … an unanticipated vicious and devastating counter punch into the underbelly of the Russian onslaught at the “Intersection" and in Zaporizhia … upending almost all of what Russia had done since last Summer as well as their plans for 2026.
From the Institute for the Study of War (ISW):
Ukrainian Counterattacks Reverse Russian Gains in Zaporizhzhia
In mid-February 2026, Ukrainian forces launched a series of tactical counterattacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reversing up to 9.5 kilometers of Russian advances achieved over a two-month period. These operations liberated over a dozen settlements, including Oleksiivka, Orestopil, Vyshneve, Yehorivka, Zlahoda, and Dobropillia. The offensive momentum shifted dramatically around February 8, when the tempo of Russian advances dropped sharply and nearly halted.
Ukrainian units struck across multiple axes: southeast of Oleksandrivka, along the Haichur River, and northwest of Huliaipole. In the Haichur River valley, Ukrainian troops crossed the river, liberated Dobropillia, and began fighting for Varvarivka. These actions were concentrated roughly 80 kilometers east of Zaporizhzhia City, an area where Russian forces had made steady progress since summer 2025.
Strategic Impact on Russian Offensive Plans
The Ukrainian counterattacks have significantly disrupted Russia’s strategic timeline for a planned summer 2026 offensive toward Zaporizhzhia City. Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko and ISW assess that Russian forces are now "spinning their wheels halfway" to their intended staging positions. The primary Russian objective—advancing within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City—has been delayed.
Although Russia still controls about 80% of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, its inability to consolidate recent gains and the loss of forward positions have weakened its operational posture. Analysts caution that Ukraine lacks the troop strength, air superiority, and artillery advantage for a full-scale counteroffensive, limiting its actions to tactical stabilization. However, the psychological and strategic impact of reversing Russian momentum is substantial.
This hideous war continues on and so does whatever General Syrskyi’s “Zaporizhia Run” aims to achieve. Whatever it turns out to be or mean to the course of the war, President Zelenskyy,(who reportedly has a personal electronic tablet which keeps him minutely informed of developments on the frontlines), and ADAPTIVE INDOMITABLE UKRAINE can proudly and confidently report today that:
Ukraine liberates 300 square km in southern counteroffensive, Zelensky says — here's what that means
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