Russian Forces In Disarray As Ukraine Counteroffensive Gains Add Up

Russian forces are largely in disarray as Ukraine's counteroffensive has decimated frontline troops and reserves, thereby disrupting the Kremlin's plans for 2026. 

The surprise success of the counterattacks along key sections of the front has largely changed both the course of this year's fighting and of the narrative surrounding Russian performance in the war. This has contributed to Kyiv's rejection of the latest White House 'peace terms' which would have given Russia territory its forces have utterly failed to win on the battlefield. JL

Kateryna Hodunova reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian forces have liberated nine settlements in the Oleksandrivka front-line sector and killed 2,653 Russian troops and wounded another 9,000 during an operation that has lasted two months (after) Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in January in the Oleksandrivka sector, where Dnipropetrovsk,  Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk oblasts converge.  Ukrainian forces regained 440 to 470 square kilometers (170-180 square miles) of territory, liberating seven settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and two in Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Ukrainian forces have liberated nine settlements in the Oleksandrivka front-line sector and killed 2,653 Russian troops during an operation that lasted roughly two months, Ukraine's Air Assault Forces Command said on March 26.

Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in late January in the Oleksandrivka sector, in the southeast, where Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk oblasts converge.

During the operation, Ukrainian forces regained about 440 square kilometers (170 square miles) of territory, liberating seven settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and two in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the report read.

Three additional settlements have been cleared of Russian troops, though their locations were not disclosed.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on March 27 that Ukrainian forces have liberated about 470 square kilometers (180 square miles) of territory and inflicted casualties on more than 11,000 Russian troops since the start of the counteroffensive. The area recaptured is roughly the size of the city of Denver, Colorado, in the U.S.

"We continue to relentlessly reclaim Ukrainian territory from the occupiers, thanks to the courage and unconventional tactics of our soldiers," Syrskyi said in a Facebook post following a work trip to the southern front.

The Air Assault Forces said on March 26 that "full control" had been restored to the village of Berezove in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The distinction between liberating, clearing, and establishing full control was not explained. 

Since the counteroffensive began on Jan. 29, Russian forces have lost 3,676 personnel in the sector, including 2,653 killed, 1,023 wounded and 11 captured, the command said.

But Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group:, expressed caution at the announcement, saying the "roughly 400 square kilometres claim has been repeated many times already in the last few weeks."

"But generally, it seems that the momentum is gone. And it doesn't really seem that the Ukrainians have made much progress beyond what they achieved in February and early March," he added.

Kastehelmi added that determining the situation in the gray zone on the front lines is difficult, and determining who is actually in control of these areas is murky.

"It could be safer to say that the Russians don't exactly control that area now either, even though it was already at least partially in their rear just like over two months ago," he said.

The news comes as Ukraine reportedly strengthens its battlefield position. Kyiv claimed that in February, Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost for the first time in years, disrupting Russia's planned March offensive.

At the same time, Russian forces continue trying to advance along multiple sections of the Ukrainian front.

Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that between March 17 and 20, Russia launched an offensive involving "tens of thousands of soldiers," with more than 6,000 killed.

Most assaults occurred in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Pokrovsk sector of Donetsk Oblast and the Oleksandrivka area, Syrskyi added.

Syrskyi also said Moscow is attempting to deploy fresh units and is counting on worsening weather to limit the effectiveness of Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance, drones, and artillery.