Decimus reports in Daily Kos:
Russian frontline assaults rare as 60-70% of infiltrators die before reaching Ukrainian lines. The earlier embarrassment of riches in tracked armor which they threw into every assault now appears to be a faint memory. Ukrainian drones and precision battery put paid to that. (And) the endless pool of mobiki wantonly pressed into “meat assaults” also seem to be drying up. Russia's offensive operations now consist of small-group infiltrations, since the army cannot gather enough men for assaults. (But) infiltration is not always effective because Russia cannot accumulate enough personnel to consolidate any local gains that the surviving fraction of infiltrators might secure. The current Russian tactic is “gradually losing effectiveness,” with advance rates minimal and the manpower deficit growing more visible.
Things are not looking too good for Russia in Ukraine nowadays. They are not looking any better in Russia itself, either.
It was written all over Vladimir Putin’s pained and troubled face during his recent high profile public appearance at the unusually truncated annual Russian Victory Day celebration in Moscow. Gone are the brash swagger and talk of the inexorable march of Russky Mir and easy victory over the Banderites(WWII era anti-Soviet Ukrainian partisans) who have taken over the government of Ukraine. Now the halls of the Kremlin and the streets of Moscow are awash in not so muted “whispers” of the once unthinkable … a potential coup d’état.
Rumors aplenty that Sergey Shoigu, former Russian Defense Minister and current Secretary of the Security Council, is reportedly “associated with the risk of a coup attempt” due to his continued influence within Russia’s military high command and unhappiness at his power base being treated shabbily amidst internal elite factional tensions, particularly following the March 5, 2026 arrest of his former top deputy, Ruslan Tsalikov, on charges of amassing millions in illicit assets. This was seen by Kremlin watchers as an attempt to undercut Shoigu’s power base and a breach of the informal protection agreements among the various elite power vertikals currently running the show in Russia. Additional speculation abound of infighting among top security officials such as the powerful FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov, Chief of Army General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and National Guard head Viktor Zolotov … all of them supposedly pointing their fingers at Shoigu … the ethnic provincial from far away Tuva Republic.
But Russia being Russia, ever-inscrutable and awash in intrigues and maskirovka, one cannot discount the possibility of all this being deliberate disinformation. For what it’s worth, Shoigu was prominently in attendance at this year’s May 9th Victory Day events, in his accustomed close proximity to Putin. But somebody in Russian officialdom is taking the threats of a coup and or assassination seriously:
Unsettled Kremlin tightens security around Putin amid assassinations and coup fears, intel report says
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/europe/putin-russia-security-intelligence-intl
Not to say anything about the worries of the everyday Russian in the street about the economy and the sudden surge in gasoline shortages as the driving season comes on. Ukraine’s steady drone campaign against refineries in mainland Russia is again bringing the war home to the Russian street. Ending queues for essential commodities in Russia was one of the tacit agreements with the people at the onset of the Putin regime. Putin has now failed to deliver on that, too:
Russia faces gasoline shortage due to Ukraine attacks
https://news.online.ua/en/russia-faces-gasoline-shortage-due-to-ukraine-attacks-903973
Meanwhile back on the front lines of the war, nothing Russia tries to do in hopes of achieving its much desired “strategic break through” seems to be working. The earlier embarrassment of riches in tracked armor which they threw into every assault now appears to be a faint distant memory. Ukrainian drones and precision battery put paid to that … creating a gigantic scrap yard of rusting heavy metal about the fields and roads of the Ukrainian countryside. The seemingly endless pool of mobiki wantonly pressed into “meat assaults” also seem to be steadily drying up. The Ukrainian FPVs and other variants are killing them faster than Russia can replace them. Then the Russians came up with the idea of infiltrating the perennially porous Ukrainian lines with small team infiltration and sabotage squads and where possible stage fake flag raising skits for propaganda purposes and also to encourage map makers to spread more pink and red ink wherever these shtick are observed or geolocated …all in service of the Russian narrative that Russia is inexorably advancing and the Ukrainian defenses are collapsing. Well, not if the Ukrainian search and destroy teams trained to hunt down the Russian infils have anything to say about it. The proof-of-concept on how to effectively clear out Russian infils was on full display in the recent Ukrainian clearing of the city of Kupiansk:
Ukrainian officer: Russian frontline assaults now rare as 60-70% of infiltrators die before reaching Ukrainian lines
A Ukrainian senior lieutenant with the call sign “Alex” wrote on his Telegram channel that Russia can no longer gather enough troops for even local offensives, leaving small-group infiltration as the main remaining tactic.
Most Russian infiltrators sent forward never reach Ukrainian lines, a Ukrainian senior lieutenant with the call sign “Alex” reported. Russia’s offensive operations now consist of small-group infiltrations, since the army cannot gather enough men for local pushes.
The infiltration approach is not always effective for Russia, Alex’s assessment suggests. Russia cannot accumulate enough personnel to consolidate any local gains that the surviving fraction of infiltrators might secure. The current Russian tactic is “gradually losing effectiveness,” he noted, with advance rates minimal and the manpower deficit growing more visible.
So what is a “Super power” now thwarted at every turn on the battlefield supposed to do? Why, reach far back into the old dusty military stores and drag out once “fearsome” armor, slap some fresh paint on them and send them by the train load into Ukraine. That should impress those young Ukrainian whipper snappers. Nothing like these tanks has been seen since the days of their parents and even grand parents. That may just do the trick. We shall see:
Russia’s T-72AM is a very old tank with a fresh coat of paint. Expect it to stay parked like other tanks.
Aging T-72As were some of the last tanks Russian industry pulled out of storage for service in Ukraine. They’re beginning to arrive.
Back in September, the Kremlin began pulling as many as 1,000 1970s-vintage T-72A tanks out of long-term storage and preparing them for modernization. This week, we caught our first glimpse of these very old, but freshly upgraded, Russian tanks in active service. Meet the T-72AM.
Their appearance is significant for two reasons. It’s evidence Russia is now digging deep enough into Soviet-era storage to bring 50-year-old tanks to the front. And it’s a test of whether tanks that old, with armor that thin, can survive a battlefield that already kills the new ones.
Vladimir Putin recently said that he believed the war is getting close to an end. He doesn’t say how or when. Asked about it today, his spox, Dmitry Peskov, muttered something about “if Ukraine made the necessary decisions”:
Kremlin explains why it began speaking about possible end of war against Ukraine
“It can stop at any moment as soon as the Kyiv regime and Zelenskyy assume responsibility and make the necessary decisions. What decisions need to be made is well known in Kyiv.”
Perhaps someone also whispered to Putin that these old tanks will be the final piece of the puzzle needed to deliver Russky Mir‘s victory in Ukraine. ADAPTIVE INDOMITABLE UKRAINE will have something to say about those tanks, too. In the meantime, please permit me a cruel chuckle as I watch the Russians suffer a bit of the unhappy whirlwind of consequences from the wind they had sown … Russia Agonistes.
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