"Catastrophic Losses" Mean Russia Doesn't Have Forces To Achieve Goals

The Kremlin continues to spout maximalist goals for its 'conquest' of Ukraine, but the battlefield reality paints an entirely different picture which is that the operational advantage is being seized by the Ukrainians. 

Evidence of Ukraine's strategic managerial superiority comes from their ability to set numerical goals - and then produce results showing how they are advancing towards achieving them. By contrast, the Kremlin's bombast does nothing to affirm their ability to even come close to their own stated outcomes and, in fact, exposes their growing vulnerability. JL

Alex Stezhensky reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

In April, 35,203 Russian troops were killed or seriously wounded. In March, the figure was 35,351; in December, 34,544.” In October, the Russian army lost 67 troops per 1 square kilometer of advance; in January, 165; in February, 244; in March, 254; and in April, 179. The dashboards show a clear pattern: The more Russian forces are hit at operational depth, the fewer assault operations take place at the front. “Our strategic goal is to inflict 200 casualties on the enemy for every square kilometer of advance.” Russian forces' heavy losses means they lack the manpower needed to capture major regional centers such as Sumy or Kharkiv.

“Today, we are inflicting catastrophic losses on the enemy. In April, 35,203 Russian troops were killed or seriously wounded — those who will no longer return to the front. In March, the figure was 35,351; in December, 34,544,” Fedorov said. “All these figures have been verified through the eBaly system and confirmed by combat units.”

Fedorov said every square kilometer of advance now costs Russian forces disproportionately heavy losses. In October, the Russian army lost 67 troops per 1 square kilometer of advance; in January, 165; in February, 244; in March, 254; and in April, 179.

“In addition to Ukrainian military operations and other factors, the shutdown of Starlink for the Russians in February 2026 played an important role here,” Fedorov said. “The Russians have still been unable to find a full replacement for it, and this gives us a critical advantage on the battlefield.”

He said another important factor was the development of so-called middle strike capabilities — medium-range drone strikes within several dozen kilometers of the line of contact.

“We began actively purchasing middle strike drones, and today this is one of our main technological advantages at the front,” Fedorov said. “We deliberately made a push into this area, and that is why we are seeing results. The dashboards already show a clear pattern: The more Russian forces are hit at operational depth, the fewer assault operations take place at the front.” Stopping Russia’s advance and seizing the initiative at the front is now one of Ukraine’s strategic goals, Fedorov said.

“Our strategic goal is to inflict at least 200 casualties on the enemy for every square kilometer of advance,” the minister said.

He said the figures show Ukraine has managed to significantly slow Russia’s advance and is gradually taking the initiative. 

 

Russian forces are suffering heavy losses and lack the manpower needed to capture major regional centers such as Sumy or Kharkiv despite Moscow’s aggressive rhetoric, Andrii Kovalenko said on May 21.

He said Russia can declare any plans it wants — including attempts to seize all of Ukraine — but that the real situation on the battlefield tells a different story.

Andrii Kovalenko stressed that Ukraine’s defenses remain effective and that Russian troop losses are significant. As a result, he said, Moscow lacks sufficient forces to capture regional capitals such as Sumy or Kharkiv. 

He also said Russian forces are trying to increase pressure along the front line, but growing casualties caused by Ukrainian resistance are “making all negative scenarios impossible.”

Kovalenko added sarcastically that Russian propagandists can say whatever they want.

“Even their propagandist Vladimir Solovyov is talking about reaching Berlin. But in reality, that will only happen if he’s in a cage and wearing a muzzle,” he said.