Russian Command Caught Lying To Putin About Progress As Ukraine Stymies Drive

As Ukrainian forces have largely evicted organized Russian units from Kupiansk and continue to hold the fortress belt line against Russian offensive operations, independent observers have publicly contradicted the Russian High Command's report to Putin that they are advancing. 

Time-stamped video and other confirmable data show that the Russians are again taking significantly heavy casualties without being able to make discernable gains. JL

Alex Stezhensky reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

Russia has been unable or unwilling to commit forces and equipment needed to repel Ukrainian counterattacks and conduct offensive operations large enough to secure tactically significant gains near Kupyansk. Russia's military command has made false claims about the battlefield situation for the fifth straight month but ISW found no evidence that Russian troops hold positions in Kupyansk and that only a few Russian infiltrators remain. They also found no evidence that Russian forces hold positions in Velyka Shapkivka, Shykivka, Kutkivka or Lyman. Instead, the evidence shows Russian forces have entered only 6.5% of Kutkivka, 0.06% of Lyman and are at least 2 kilometers from Shykivka and 4 kilometers from Velyka Shapkivka.

Russia’s top military command has made false claims about the battlefield situation for the fifth straight month, baselessly saying its forces are advancing west of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast even though they have not captured the city, the Institute for the Study of War said in its May 16 report.

Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov met on May 16 with commanders of the Western Group of Forces and made a series of false claims about the situation in the Kupyansk, Borova and Lyman sectors.

Gerasimov claimed, among other things, that Russian troops were advancing west of Kupyansk toward Shevchenkove. ISW said the claim could create the false impression that Russian forces had already captured Kupyansk and controlled territory farther west of the city. 

Gerasimov also claimed Russian troops had entered Velyka Shapkivka, captured all of Borova and Kutkivka, and seized half of Shykivka and 85% of Lyman.

Infographics: ISW

ISW said it found evidence confirming that Russian troops do not hold fortified positions in Kupyansk and that only a few Russian infiltrators remain in the city. The analysts also found no evidence that Russian forces hold positions in Velyka Shapkivka, Shykivka, Kutkivka or Lyman.

Instead, ISW said the evidence shows Russian forces have entered only 14.2% of Kupyansk, 6.5% of Kutkivka and 0.06% of Lyman. The institute assesses that Russian troops are currently at least 2 kilometers from Shykivka and 4 kilometers from Velyka Shapkivka.

Gerasimov described Shevchenkove as Russia’s next target after Kupyansk. But Russian forces are not close to capturing Kupyansk, and without control of the city they cannot advance along the H-20 highway toward Shevchenkove, ISW said.

Russia has been unable or unwilling to commit the forces and equipment needed to repel Ukrainian counterattacks and conduct offensive operations large enough to secure tactically or operationally significant gains near Kupyansk, inside the city or beyond it, the analysts said.

Gerasimov and other senior Russian officials have repeatedly exaggerated Russian advances along the front line. Ukraine’s defensive lines, however, continue to withstand Russia’s spring and summer offensive, while Ukrainian troops are fighting for the tactical initiative in several sectors, including near Kupyansk, ISW said.

Claims of fabricated gains, along with complaints from Russian milbloggers, may suggest that Russia’s top military leadership either does not understand battlefield realities or refuses to acknowledge them — allowing its own false narratives to shape Russian operational and strategic planning, the analysts said.