Humiliated Putin Targets Civilian Homes As Ukraine Targets Russian Industries

Humiliated by the pathetically reduced scale of his latest 'victory' parade as well as the necessity of having to ask Trump to intervene with Zelensky on his behalf to prevent attacks on Red Square during the event, Putin evidently decided he needed to lash out after the fact by targeting a number of civilian apartment buildings across Ukraine. A number of men, women and children were killed and some buildings were damaged, but this latest terror attack has had no more effect on Ukraine's determination than did such previous war crimes. 

Ukraine, as is its strategy, then retaliated by targeting Russian refineries, ammunition plants and military airfields. It is not hard to guess which series of attacks will be more impactful. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Humiliated by his short May 9 parade with no military equipment, for which Putin had to beg Trump to intercede on his behalf with Zelensky to even let the parade go ahead, Putin then lashed out with one of the largest terror attacks of the war against Ukraine. From May 13-15, the Russians sent 1567 drones to attack Kyiv and other cities. The Ukrainians did a solid job of defending themselves, shooting down 95% of the drones and 41 of 56 missiles. (But) even this interception rate meant they did deadly damage. After the Russian attacks were over, the Ukrainians launched a response hitting strategic targets - refineries, ammunition plants, airfields. The Ukrainian attacks will be more important in shaping the course of the war. Russian civilian attacks are not cracking Ukrainian resistance and might strengthen it. Fighting smart is better than fighting brutally.

In the end, Putin seems to have been embarrassed by the spectacle (or lack thereof) surrounding his May 9 Victory Parade. Not only was the short event, with no large military equipment, itself a damp squib, Putin also had to beg Trump to intercede on his behalf with Zelensky to even let the parade go ahead. Probably humiliated, Putin lashed out with one of the largest, most demonstrative, and most terroristic attacks of the war against Ukraine.

In a 48-hour period stretching from May 13-15, the Russians sent 1567 attack drones into Ukraine, primarily to attack Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. This included large numbers of newer jet powered Shaheds, which the Ukrainians have been preparing for for a while. As this mass drone attack was going on, the Russians mixed in salvos of much faster and more destructive missiles, around 56 was the Ukrainian count.

On the one hand, the Ukrainians did a very solid job of defending themselves, claiming to have shot down about 95% of the drones that were used in the Russian mass assault. When it came to the missiles, the Ukrainians claimed to have shot down 41 of 56. Of course even this interception rate meant that a large number of drones and too many missiles would have hit their target and done real and deadly damage.

Much of that damage was intended to happen and did happen, to civilian targets. In one case there was a direct hit on an apartment building in Kyiv, which killed at least some people in their beds.

Rescue Workers In Kyiv This Week

Across Ukraine 24 people were killed (three of them children) with more than 150 wounded, making it one of the bloodiest and most criminal nights of the war. Even in a country that, sadly, views air attacks as part of normal life, this kind of attack and this kind of toll was sobering. Zelensky made a point of visiting the apartment building in Kyiv where most of the people had died, and released some pictures.

Zelensky even promised retribution for the strikes. In a meeting with the Ukrainian military he was quoted as saying: “Ukraine will not allow any of the aggressor’s strikes that take the lives of our people to go unpunished”.

However by retribution Zelensky did not mean a crime for a crime, he meant a strategic strike in retaliation for an atrocity. That means alot. 

Ukraine Slaughters Strategic Industries

Ukrainian production of drones and cruise missiles is now at the level where they can launch large strikes at regular intervals. Almost immediately after the Russian mass attacks were over, the Ukrainians readied and launched a response. Over the subsequent days they hit a number of strategic economic targets, targets designed to damage the Russian war economy in a number of different ways.

The first major target was the Russian oil refinery at Ryazan, which is only about 180 kilometers from Moscow. It also has the ability to refine “upwards of 17.1 million tons of oil per year” making it one of the largest Russian refineries. The hits were accurate enough the large fires were instantly ignited, pictures of which were quickly circulating on Russian social media.

Oil refining was not the only strategic industry attacked. One attack, that has not received the coverage it deserves, was the Ukrainian attack on the Russian Azot chemical plant in Stavropol Krai. Azot is the largest chemical enterprise in southern Russia. It annually produces up to one million tons of ammonia and over one million tons of ammonium nitrate. Ammonium nitrate is a key element in the manufacture of explosives—and needless to say, explosives are a key manufacturing part of the Russian war economy.

Finally there was a series of Ukrainian attacks on Russian military targets, including airfields, military logistics and even a naval vessel.

The scope of all these different attacks was impressive. However one thing that was not on the list was Russian apartment buildings. There was no atrocity in return, just effective strategic operations.

The contrast could not have been more obvious. And when it comes to effect, I still argue as I have for a while that the Ukrainian attacks will be more important in shaping the course of the war. Russian civilian crime attacks do not seem to be cracking Ukrainian resistance, indeed they might be strengthening it. However, Ukrainian attacks on Russian strategic industries continue to reduce Russian fuel exports—which is doubly important now as the US has made sure oil prices are abnormally high.

I am sure there are those in Ukraine who feel so angry with the Russians deliberately killing civilians that they would believe it justified if Ukraine struck back similarly. And at this point, if the Ukrainians did, they might receive little condemnation. However, the Ukrainians are still refusing to make criminal attacks in favor of effective strategic ones.

This contrast helps explain why the war has developed as it has and why Ukraine is starting to take the initiative.

Fighting smart is usually better than fighting brutally.