Data Reveal Russia's Spring Offensive And War Are Close To Breaking Down

For the past three months, Ukraine has netted more territory retaken than Russian has gained. One month is a data point; three months are a trend.

The broader implication is that Russia's spring-summer offensive is close to culminating - military jargon for coming to an end - with summer having only arrived three days ago. This suggests that the Kremlin's ability to seize more territory of any significance is waning. The next question is to what extent Ukraine can pick up the momentum. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Russian may have lost as much as 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory last month. Any advances reported are minor. Russia has struggled to convert its gains into a wider breakthrough. The best that might be said of Russia’s spring offensive on the ground is that it has stalled, and without a major injection of resources, appears close to culminating. Ukraine has seized the strategic initiative in this war, and it is using its current momentum to shape both the battlespace and the negotiating table. Each strike that reaches the Russian capital, sets a refinery alight or grounds traffic at Moscow’s airports, widens the gap between the Kremlin’s narrative of inevitable victory and the lived reality of Russia under Ukrainian drone and missile attacks.

Drawing on DeepState’s mapping and ISW reporting, the Russia Matters War Report Card this week recorded that Russia either gained 10 square miles of Ukrainian territory in the past month – or lost 57 square miles. The range of claims is more indicative of a front line that is not a line but a kilometres deep grey zone where control of ground changes rapidly and is continuously contested.

Graph: Russia Matters

Russian advances were reported near or in eight settlements clustered around Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, including Rodynske, Illinivka and Sofiivka. These are minor gains. Russia captured Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad earlier this year but has struggled to convert these gains into a wider breakthrough. The best that might be said of Russia’s spring offensive on the ground is that it has almost stalled, and without any major injection of resources, appears close to culminating. 

Ukraine has seized the strategic initiative in this war, and that it is using its current momentum to shape both the battlespace and the negotiating table. The strike on Moscow was not a war-winning blow, and it will not halt the Russian ground operations in Donetsk attempting to seize more territory.

The significance of the Moscow strike is instead cumulative and political. Each deep strike that reaches the Russian capital, sets a refinery alight or grounds traffic at Moscow’s airports, widens the gap between the Kremlin’s narrative of inevitable victory and the lived reality of Russia under Ukrainian drone and missile attacks. This only strengthens Ukraine’s hand in any conversation about war termination.