Half Of Frontline Combat Now From Ukraine Attacks As Russia Loses Tactical Initiative

Ukrainians and their supporters have become inured over the past few years to daily reports about Ukrainian forces responding to Russian attacks.

So it is extremely significant that analyses now indicate as many as half of all combat between the Ukraine and Russia along the front over the past month have been Ukrainian attacks on Russian forces. And that the trend is growing to such an extent that Ukrainian-initiated operations may soon exceed Russians'. The implication is that Russia has lost the tactical initiative, which has been gained by Ukraine, meaning that Kyiv's forces control the pace, location and nature of the battle, applying it to their advantage and the Russians' disadvantage. JL

Oleksii Hetman comments in Ukrinform, David Axe reports:

The ratio of attack and counterattack in combat engagements indicates that Ukraine’s forces are gaining the tactical initiative from Russia which no longer has the most assault actions in its war on Ukraine. (And), the Russians are losing the momentum at the time of year they usually have the most momentum: springtime. "There were 300 engagements a few days ago: about 150 were Russian assaults and 150 were Ukrainian counterattacks. This ratio has grown to 50–50. Compared to March, when it was 30–70 in favor of Russian attacks, the situation has now equalized.” If this trend continues, Ukrainian counterattacks may soon exceed Russian assault activity.  

The ratio of combat engagements indicates that Ukraine’s Defense Forces are gaining tactical initiative.

“There are days when more than 300 combat engagements were recorded per day. But many people assume that General Staff reports reflect only Russian assault actions. That is not what is actually happening on the front line,” he said.

He noted that, according to statements by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, about half of the engagements now represent Ukrainian counterattacks.

“If there were 300 engagements a few days ago, about 150 were Russian assaults and 150 were Ukrainian counterattacks. This ratio has grown to 50–50. Compared to March, when it was 30–70 in favor of Russian attacks, the situation has now equalized,” Hetman said.

According to him, if this trend continues, Ukrainian counterattacks may soon exceed Russian assault activity.  

Russia’s main objective in Ukraine this year is to capture Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the last two big free cities in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.

The Russians have two options. One, to attack toward Kramatorsk—the southernmost of the twin cities—from the south, from the direction of occupied Pokrovsk. Or two, to drive on Sloviansk from the north.

But the northern approach first means marching through Lyman, 10 miles north of Sloviansk. And the Ukrainians aren’t just sitting around waiting for the Russians to move. At least twice since late May, the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps has counterattacked north of Lyman.

It’s not yet apparent the Ukrainians have gained much ground along this axis. But it’s telling that they’re trying—and that they’re able to try. Russia no longer has the initiative in its 52-month wider war on Ukraine. Incredibly, the Russians are losing the momentum at the time of year they usually have the most momentum: springtime.

On or just before Wednesday, Russian troops continued what mapper and analyst AMK Mapping described as “limited assault operations” around Hrekivka, 17 miles north of Lyman, while Ukrainian troops launched their own counterattack toward Nove, 10 miles north of Lyman.  

Ukraine is actively targeting Russian logistics and preventing the delivery of supplies to the front line. He also pointed to the reported destruction of up to 40% of Russia’s primary oil refining capacity.

“All these actions are leading to the stabilization of the front line. If the number of strikes on both sides is roughly equal and there is no significant advance, it means the front line is militarily stabilized,” he said.

Hetman also answered affirmatively when asked whether Ukraine has seized the initiative in the war.

“Yes. The number of combat engagements has equalized. Previously it was lower, almost negligible. Now it has increased and has effectively matched Russia’s level. This is tactical initiative,” he said.

He added that on some sections of the front, Ukrainian forces even hold an advantage in manpower and equipment.

“There are all signs that the initiative, at least at the tactical level, is already on our side. Not yet strategic, but it is in our hands. If the trend continues, Russia may be forced to retreat. This could resemble the Kherson or Kharkiv operations,” the analyst noted.