Losing 1000s of Trucks To Drone Hits, Russia Is Facing Logistical Dead-End

Resource-strapped and economically sinking Russia is now losing hundreds of trucks  a day  and thousands per month due to Ukrainian drone strikes on the mid range logistical routes supporting its military in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Lunhansk.

Once again, the Ukrainians strategic identification of Russian weaknesses followed by a plan to make them worse is producing results for which the Kremlin has no answer. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

The campaign of AI drone strikes is intensifying. And now the Russians are losing hundreds of trucks every day. Far more than they can replace with new production. While Russian ground forces possess tens of thousands of cargo vehicles, and buy thousands of new ones every year, they're currently on track to lose thousands per month. Russia lost 7,000 trucks in May, around 6,500 in April and slightly more than 6,000 in March. The number of old Cold War cargo vehicles in storage in Russia is 40,000 or 50,000. But that's just 100 days' worth of trucks at the current rate of loss. (And) the stored trucks have been parked "for decades without proper maintenance. Most are junk." 

The Russian military keeps tens of thousands of old trucks in storage. It might need them soon. This spring, Ukrainian forces launched a counterlogistics campaign targeting Russian trucks, vans and other cargo vehicles across the logistical zone stretching 200 km behind the disputed gray zone.

The campaign of AI drone strikes is intensifying. And now the Russians are losing potentially hundreds of trucks every day. Far more than they can immediately replace with new production. While Russian ground forces possess tens of thousands of cargo vehicles, and buy thousands of new ones every year, they're currently on track to lose thousands per month.

If truck losses continue at the current rate, or get worse, the Russians may have no choice but to begin doing for trucks what they've long done for tanks: pull very old vehicles out of long-term storage and do their best to refurbish them for continued use. 

It could be tough. "Russia has an immense number of stored trucks," analyst Jompy noted. They placed the number of old Cold War cargo vehicles in storage in Russia at 40,000 or 50,000. That's more trucks than most armies have in their entire inventories, but it's also just 100 days' worth of trucks at the current rate of loss across the logistical zone.

Worse for Russian logisticians, most of the stored trucks have been parked "for decades without proper maintenance," according to Jompy. "Most are junk."

How long Russia's current truck inventory lasts, and how urgently it may need to tap reserves of rusty older vehicles, depends on exactly how many trucks Ukrainian drones are knocking out every day. 

The Ukrainian general staff reported 483 destroyed Russian trucks on 30 May, another 524 on 31 May and 384 on 1 June. The average across the past three days is 463 trucks. That's more than five times Russia's average daily truck losses since widening its war on Ukraine in February 2022.

Russian trucks destroyed by Ukraine. Chart: Euromaidan Press 

According to the Ukrainian defense ministry, Russia lost nearly 7,000 trucks in May, around 6,500 in April and slightly more than 6,000 in March. Cargo vehicle losses in previous months were much lower, including just 4,000 or so per month between December and February. That makes sense, as the Ukrainian counterlogistics campaign began in earnest as the weather warmed and the winter fog lifted over the Russian logistical zone this spring.

The intensifying drone raids on Russian supply lines out to a distance of 200 km marks a strategic pivot for Ukraine. As recently as late last year, Ukrainian leaders were under scrutiny for focusing their drone strikes on Russian infantry in the gray zone as well as on largely symbolic targets deep inside Russia. That bifurcated focus risked neglecting the logistical middle zone.

But that was before the spring pivot. Now the middle zone and its supply lines are the main focus of Ukraine's best new drones, including Swift Beat Hornets and other inexpensive fixed-wing drones with jam-resistant AI-targeting. "A battlefield runs on logistics," the Ukrainian defense ministry conceded. "Ukraine is making sure Russia's does not." 

Electronic warfare might not save Russia's logistics, given how many of the Ukrainian drones ranging across the logistical zone have self-contained AI for targeting and don't need a low-lag connection to a distant operator in order to strike their targets.

Russia can fight back by deploying more air defenses along the main supply routes. The problem there is that Ukrainian drones are also targeting the air defenses, hitting hundreds of them in just the last year.

The Russians could also erect anti-drone nets over the most vulnerable highways. But there are hundreds of miles of roads, and nets are fragile.

Most likely, the Kremlin will try a little of everything to keep supplies and reinforcements flowing to the front-line regiments. The all-of-the-above logistical effort could very well include refurbishing—or at least trying to refurbish—a whole lot of very old trucks.