US State Dept Publicly Says "Ukraine Is Winning the War" Against Russia

Not that this is a definitive assessment, coming, as it does, from an administration that firmly believes everyone is entitled to their own facts, but it certainly betrays a shift in perceptions - and in the odds. 

The US President has a history of wanting to take credit for success and to distance himself - or blame others - for failure. This proclivity is so well known that reports indicate the Russian military is concerned this White House may reverse course and start sending weapons and ammunition to Ukraine so that the US President can claim a resulting victory as his own. The larger point is that the global consensus about momentum as well as the facts on the ground, sea and in the air has now shifted to Ukraine. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos and the Institute for the Study of War reports:

President Trump and US Deputy Secretary of State Jeremy Levin stated June 25 that Ukraine currently has the battlefield advantage, saying "Ukraine is winning the war." Ukraine's long- and medium-range strike campaigns against Russian military and energy infrastructure in occupied Ukraine and Russia along with Ukrainian advances in Winter and Spring 2026 are dismantling the Russian false narrative portraying Russian victory as inevitable. Russia has accused the US of failing to deliver on “understandings” reached between President Putin and President Trump at their Alaska summit last August - though they did not provide specifics - signaling growing frustration in Moscow. Now, “after getting to fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation,” Trump said he believes Ukraine – backed by the EU and NATO – can win back all its territory.

US President Donald Trump and US Deputy Secretary of State Jeremy Levin stated on June 24 and 25 that Ukraine currently has the battlefield advantage, demonstrating that Russia failed to convince the United States that the Ukrainian frontlines are collapsing.[5] Levin emphasized on June 24 that Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian oil infrastructure are increasing the cost of war for Russia and are forcing Russia to divert resources away from the frontlines. 

Kremlin officials regularly make claims, aggrandize tactical Russian advances, and present false evidence as part of a wider cognitive warfare effort attempting to portray Ukrainian frontlines as collapsing – a coordinated campaign to pressure Ukraine and its partners into capitulating to Russia’s demands in negotiations. Ukrainian successful long- and intermediate-range strike campaigns against Russian military assets and energy infrastructure in occupied Ukraine and Russia along with Ukrainian tactical advances in several directions in Winter and Spring 2026 are dismantling the Russian false narrative of portraying Russian victory as inevitable.  

It is quite interesting that while Putin himself sees nothing for him to worry about, his minions, especially Foreign Minister Lavrov are beginning to realize that their friend at the above address on the Potomac is about to welsh on previously agreed quid pro quo regarding Ukraine being leaned on by the United States into surrender. In fact, Russia has now formally accused the United States of failing to honor “understandings” reached between Krasnov and Putin at their August 15, 2025 summit in Alaska. Senior Russian officials have recently publicly stated, this month alone(June 2026), that the U.S. has not followed through on “The Spirit of Anchorage” … what some experts view as Moscow’s expectation that Krasnov would support freezing battle lines in exchange for Ukraine ceding the entire Donbas region.  Funny thing. While the Russians cavil and inveigh against what they see as some form of American perfidy, they themselves have not provided any details on what specific “understandings” in “The Spirit of Anchorage” are being breached:

Russia says US failed to honor Trump-Putin ‘understandings’

Russia has accused the United States of failing to deliver on “understandings” reached between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump at their Alaska summit last August, signaling growing frustration in Moscow as Ukraine intensifies drone strikes deep inside Russia.

Three senior Russian officials accused over three days, saying Washington had not followed through, though they did not provide specifics.

Since the Alaska summit, Moscow has often referred to “the spirit of Anchorage.”

Analysts say the phrase is shorthand for Russia’s argument that Trump is sympathetic to its central demand that Ukraine give up the whole of its Donbas region in return for freezing battle lines elsewhere.

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/world/russia-says-us-failed-to-honor-trump-putin-understandings-3222577?s=1

There’s growing evidence that Krasnov, now seeing Ukraine’s fortunes on the battlefield take a dramatic turn for the better, is preparing to cast his lot with Ukraine. Perhaps, it began shortly after the Alaska summit when pretty much all of the western world was horrified and publicly let loose their displeasure as well as lampooned the preternaturally thin-skinned occupanty of the white House. Even some in the MAGAsphere were aghast at the level of obsequiousness Krasnov and minions showed … U.S. military personnel on their knees rolling out the red carpet for Putin’s tarmac escalator. Then Sergei Lavrov, undiplomatically channeling his inner Nikita Khrushchev(“We will take America without firing a shot….) had the unmitigated gall to walk about in a sweat shirt emblazoned with the Cyrillic acronym of the old Soviet Union(СССР). Yet a month or so after Anchorage(Septemeber 2025), Krasnov indicated a shift in sentiment, if not policy:

Trump, in major shift, suggests Ukraine can win back territory long held by Russia

President Trump on Tuesday shifted his position on whether Ukraine should hold out for all the territory seized by Russia, saying on social media that he thinks Ukraine is in a position to win it all back.

It’s a reversal from his long-held position that Kyiv would need to give up some of its territory to Moscow to end the war – such as Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

But now, “after getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation,” Trump said he believes Ukraine – backed by the European Union and NATO – can win back all its territory.

“Why not?” he said in a post after he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, even suggesting that Ukraine could “maybe even go further than that!”

The reversal is the latest example of how Trump has swung between deference, frustration and indirect threats against Russia. Early in his second term, Trump boasted that his close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin would help him broker a quick resolution to the conflict.

https://www.opb.org/article/2025/09/24/trump-shifts-position-on-ukrainian-territory-held-by-russia

Then came the recent G7 summit, held June 15-17, 2026 in Évian-les-Bains, France, during which Krasnov seemed to be seeking ways to mend fences with Europe, including Ukraine and Zelenskyy. Krasnov reportedly told Zelenskyy that Russia should make a deal to end the war, and that he, Krasnov, would “do whatever I can” to help achieve peace. He further described his meeting with Zelenskyy as “very good”. Krasnov also expressed his disapproval of the Russian strikes on civilian targets, including the gold domed Pechersk Lavra monastery in Kyiv, after Zelenskyy showed him pictures of the aftermath.

Heh! The bright shiny gold domes of the historic church must have done the trick?

G7 leaders express optimism for peace after Trump’s ‘very good’ Zelenskyy meeting

EVIAN-LES-BAINS, France: US President Donald Trump said Russia should make peace with Ukraine after a “very good” meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday (Jun 16), in comments that sparked cautious optimism among G7 leaders that a peace deal could be struck.

The upbeat mood over the Ukraine war, now deep into its fifth year, stands in stark contrast to Zelenskyy’s meeting with Trump in the Oval Office last year, when he was told he had no leverage in potential peace talks with Russia.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/g7-summit-zelenskyy-trump-ukraine-war-russia-6186861

It is now generally accepted good practice to discount pronouncements from Krasnov. They often mean nothing except to glorify himself or be dismissive of others that do not cast him personally in bright lights. Real policy is often quite secondary, if even that. I, personally, saw his utterings at Évian-les-Bains as such. But could the news today from the U.S. Department of State foreshadow the possibility of a coming real change in the current U.S. administration’s view of the situation in the Russo-Ukrainian war, the attendant policy shift and all that may entail for Ukraine?:

U.S. State Department says Ukraine currently winning war

The U.S. Department of State believes that Ukraine is currently winning the war against Russia.

This was stated by U.S. under Secretary of State for Foreign Assistance, Humanitarian Affairs, and Religious Freedom Jeremy Lewin during the YES Dinner Discussion ahead of the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2026), an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

“We do have a moment right now where Ukraine is winning the war,” he noted, highlighting how much Kyiv is doing to adapt to the next phase of the conflict.