Massive Polymarket Bets Waged On Putin's Downfall By End of 2026

Although Polymarket is notoriously unreliable in some respects, it does have a reputation for reflecting inside information. That anyone would be willing to bet $400,000 on Putin's downfall suggests, at the very least, a growing lack of confidence in his leadership as well as perceptions of his growing vulnerability.

The picture of an open window, at left, reflects the ominous regular - and presumably cynical - Kremlin announcements that an out-of-favor Russian politician or general has died from 'falling out of an open window." JL

Michael Luciano reports in Mediaite:

An unknown bettor on the Polymarket gambling website plunked down $400,000 on Russian President Vladimir Putin no longer being president by the end of 2026. The wager comes as Ukraine has been hitting targets deep inside Russian territory amid the ongoing war. The bettor’s account, which was created in May, is @ZnotluvuiSamez and has a Ukrainian flag as its profile image. That person has also bet that Ukraine will retake Crimea before 2027. The odds on the Putin bet are at 6:1. If the $400,000 bet hits and Putin is out by 2027, the payout will be around $2.5 million.

An unknown bettor on the Polymarket gambling website plunked down $400,000 on Russian President Vladimir Putin no longer being president by the end of 2026. The wager comes as Ukraine has been hitting targets deep inside Russian territory amid the ongoing war, which began with Russia’s invasion of the country in 2022.

NBC News first reported the big wager on Wednesday night.

Ukrainian forces used drones to hit targets in Moscow and have disrupted fuel supplies by bombing oil refineries while stepping up efforts to cleave off Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Russia has responded with a wave of drone attacks on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. 

The bettor’s account, which was created in May, is @ZnotluvuiSamez and has a Ukrainian flag as its profile image. That person has also bet that Ukraine will retake Crimea before 2027.

The odds do not seem particularly favorable to the bettor, who is facing slightly better than 6:1 odds. If the $400,000 bet hits and Putin is out by 2027, the payout will be around $2.5 million.

Putin has been Russia’s president since December 1999, save for the years between 2008 and 2012, when he wielded power via then-President Dmitry Medvedev because the Russian constitution bars presidents from serving more than two six-year terms, a provision that Putin has circumvented via political gimmicks.

In April, the Department of Justice charged a U.S. Army soldier who participated in the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in early January. The indictment alleges that Gannon Ken Van Dyke made more than $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on Maduro’s ouster.

“Those bets all took the ‘YES’ position on ‘U.S. Forces in Venezuela . . . by January 31, 2026’; ‘Maduro out by . . . January 31, 2026’; ‘Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by . . . January 31,’; or ‘Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by . . . January 31,’” the complaint states. “Van Dyke bet a total of approximately $33,034 on those outcomes while in possession of classified nonpublic information about Operation Absolute Resolve.