The World Strategist reports:
The eyes of the world are still on the Donbas. But while the world looks east, Ukraine is winning its war elsewhere. It is winning in the south, where its troops have taken more territory in one season than Russia has in the Donbas all year. The operation along the Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole axs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast regained more than 400 square kilometers since the operation began. (And) the counteroffensive compelled Russia to divert forces from the Donbas. It is also winning in Crimea, which drone strikes have turned into a beleaguered outpost; in the Black Sea, where Russia’s fleet has been driven to the east and crippled its “shadow fleet.” And it is winning in the deep rear, where strikes on refineries, logistics hubs and command posts are eating away at Russia’s ability to keep its war machine going.
The eyes of the world are still on the Donbas. The headlines tell the story every day of the slow, grinding Russian advance on Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Analysts are poring over the map, counting square kilometers of gains. The “Fortress Belt” has become the decisive front of the war, where Russia’s offensive is likely to succeed or fail.
But while the world looks east, Ukraine is winning its war elsewhere.
It is winning in the south, where its troops have taken more territory in one season than Russia has in the Donbas all year. It is winning in Crimea, where a systematic campaign of drone strikes has turned a Russian military hub into a beleaguered outpost. It is winning in the Black Sea, where Ukrainian naval drones have driven Russia’s fleet from the western waters and crippled its “shadow fleet.” And it is winning in the deep rear, where strikes on refineries, logistics hubs and command posts are slowly eating away at Russia’s ability to keep its war machine going.
The Donbas is a sideshow. The real war is being fought (and won) elsewhere.
The Donbas Stalemate: A Russian Graveyard of Ambitions
The Donbas was to be the site of Russia’s decisive victory. In early 2026, the Kremlin’s deadline was to capture all of Donetsk Oblast by the end of the year. Russian commanders were preparing their forces for a spring-summer offensive that would finally breach Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt” and break Ukrainian defenses.
This did not happen.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russian forces have made virtually no progress since March 2026. Russian forces in Donetsk Oblast averaged 2.36 square kilometers per day in August, down from 15 square kilometers per day in 2025 and 5.5 square kilometers per day in the first quarter of 2026. “Russia’s average pace of advance in 2026 slowed to 3.5 times lower than last year’s pace, and Russian forces captured less than 0.2% of additional Ukrainian territory this year, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said.
The human toll has been staggering. Russian casualties in August alone had reached 42,000 killed or wounded — “one of the highest monthly casualty rates of the war”, Sybiha said. Almost 25,000 soldiers are dying each month on a front line which has moved very little, the Finnish President Alexander Stubb told the UN Security Council.
The Donbas is a cemetery of Russian ambitions. But that’s not where the war will be won.
Southern Counteroffensive: Where Ukraine Is Winning
Russia’s been bleeding out in the Donbas, Ukraine has been making gains in the south
In late January 2026 Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive on the southern front catching Russian forces off guard. The operation along the Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole axs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast was intended to exploit weak points in Russia’s overextended defenses and reclaim land occupied for years.
And the results were stunning. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said Ukrainian forces had regained control of 285.6 square kilometers in one month on the Oleksandrivka axis alone, and more than 400 square kilometers since the operation began. ISW confirmed Ukrainian forces recaptured over 400 square km in southern Ukraine over the winter and spring of 2026.
The counteroffensive did something more important than territory: It compelled Russia to divert forces from the Donbas to withstand the Ukrainian advance. ISW assessed that the Ukrainian counterattacks “created cascading operational and strategic effects for Russia’s ongoing Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against the Fortress Belt,” forcing Russia to choose between “defending against Ukrainian counterattacks or allocating manpower and resources to priority sectors.”
The southern counteroffensive is more than just a tactical victory. It’s a tactical one. Ukraine has shown it can seize the initiative and force Russia to react, while Russia’s own offensive in Donbas is stalled.
Crimea’s Isolation: From Fort to Siege
The most significant development in the war in 2026 is not taking place in the Donbas. In the Crimea it is happening.
Since April 2026, Ukraine has been systematically cutting off the occupied peninsula with a multipronged campaign of drone strikes. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has described the strategy as severing Russian supply lines to Crimea and destroying key infrastructure until the occupation “withers on the vine.”
The results have been disastrous.
Ukraine has been using its medium-range drones to systematically strike Russian traffic on the R-280 highway — the so-called “Novorossiya highway” — Russia’s main land supply route to Crimea. Ukrainian forces have also struck the ferries used by Russia to transport oil and military equipment across the Kerch Strait, the bridges connecting the peninsula to occupied Kherson Oblast, and fuel depots, gas storage facilities and electrical infrastructure inside Crimea.
The impact on the peninsula has been widespread. Russian occupation authorities banned fuel sales to civilians altogether after the oil terminal in Kerch was hit on June 21. The Russian-appointed Sevastopol governor Mikhail Razvozhaev ordered supermarkets, bars and restaurants to close at 8 p.m. to save fuel. Power outages have swept across the peninsula.
Russia also shut the Don-Azov Shipping Canal, a vital channel for Russian shipping, on July 11, effectively isolating Crimea by sea as well as by land. Within two weeks 75% of all shipping through Kerch was gone.
The strategic ramifications are profound. Once hailed by Putin as a “unsinkable aircraft carrier,” Crimea is becoming a military liability: a besieged outpost that Russia must defend but cannot supply. Ukraine is “creating the conditions for the effective isolation of the occupied peninsula — without a ground military operation,” said Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces.
The Black Sea Campaign: Getting Russia’s Fleet Out of the Water
f the Crimea is the keystone of Russia’s southern strategy, the Black Sea Fleet is its shield. And Ukraine has broken that shield.
In a stunning 11-week operation under the code name “MoLoChKa” (“Moscow Will Fall Through Crimea”), the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine struck 300 ships of Russia’s shadow fleet, 134 in the Sea of Azov and 166 in the Black Sea. The campaign was intended to disrupt Russian maritime logistics, cut off oil exports and sever supply lines that sustain Russian forces in occupied southern Ukraine.
The operation was part of a broader campaign that has transformed the Black Sea from a Russian lake to a contested zone. Ukrainian forces attacked Russia’s naval base in the city of Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, on September 9, destroying several ships, including missile carriers. Ukrainian drones also hit a Su-33 carrier-based fighter, a Mi-8 helicopter and two radar systems near Gelendzhik.
Damage to the economy has been severe. In late September, the governor of Russia’s Krasnodar region declared a state of emergency after Ukrainian air strikes disrupted grain exports. “Massive attacks” on logistics infrastructure have stopped port operations and maritime traffic in the Black Sea. A vital source of revenue, Russia’s grain exports, came to a standstill.
Ukraine has done something remarkable: it has pushed the Russian Navy out of the western Black Sea, reestablished its own grain corridors and turned Russia’s maritime logistics from an asset into a vulnerability.
Degrading the War Machine: The Deep Strike Campaign
Ukraine is not only winning on the fronts of south and Crimea. Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign is gradually eating away at Russia’s ability to fight across the entire theater.
Ukraine has conducted more than 1,000 long-range strike missions since the start of 2026. Targets include oil refineries, logistics hubs, military sites and command posts. In February 2026 alone, Ukrainian forces hit 85 targets by means of DeepStrike, which resulted in a 24.8% drop in the overall volume of oil refining in Russia.
The campaign has grown in scope and effectiveness. Ukrainian drones are now striking targets more than 2,500 kilometers inside Russia, including the Omsk Oil Refinery, the longest confirmed drone strike in history. And these strikes are not just symbolic. They are draining Russia’s war economy, interrupting fuel supplies and compelling the Kremlin to pull air defense assets away from the front lines to defend critical infrastructure.
ISW assessed that Ukraine’s intensified mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower since early 2026 has “degraded Russian forces’ ability to conduct offensive operations across the theater.” This is not just a supporting campaign. It is a strategy to win the war.
Strategic Logic: Why the South Matters More
Russia has decided to fight in the Donbas. Ukraine has decided to win in the south.
Straightforward logic. Russia has massed its forces in the Donbas, built extensive fortifications and committed to a grinding war of attrition that plays to its numerical advantages. Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition with a bigger enemy. But it can escape one.
The terrain is open, Russian defenses thinner and the strategic stakes higher in the south. Crimea is the foundation of Russia’s southern strategy. If Ukraine can isolate Crimea, it can threaten the entire Russian position in southern Ukraine: the land bridge to Crimea, the occupation of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and the naval base at Sevastopol.
Ukraine’s strategy is not territorial grab. The point is to make Russia’s position untenable. Ukraine is laying the groundwork for a Russian collapse, not through one decisive battle, but through the slow, inexorable degradation of Russia’s capacity to sustain its forces. Ukraine is winning the war of attrition by cutting supply lines, destroying infrastructure, and isolating key nodes.
This is systems war-fare. And Ukraine is winning.
The War Outside the Donbas: The End
Donbas is important. Each kilometer of Ukrainian land counts. Every village Russia occupies is a village Ukrainians have lost.
But the war is not going to be settled in the Donbas. It is where Russia has chosen to draw blood. And Ukraine is willing to let it happen.
The real war is in the south, where Ukraine is taking territory back and forcing Russia to react. It is being fought in Crimea, where a systematic campaign of drone strikes is turning a fortress into a siege. The fighting is happening in the Black Sea, where Ukrainian naval drones have driven the Russian fleet out of the waters. And it is being fought in the deep rear, where strikes on refineries and logistics hubs are degrading Russia’s war machine.
The world is watching Donbas. But elsewhere, Ukraine is winning the war.
And that may be the most important development of the whole conflict.
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