A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 17, 2025

Why Russia's Deliberate Strike On Polish Factory In Ukraine Will Likely Backfire

Russian drones deliberately struck a Polish-owned factory in Ukraine that made flooring for homes. The attack was doubtlessly intended as a warning threat to Poland and other countries investing in Ukraine. 

But Putin has generally overestimated the value of his terror campaigns - perhaps because intimidation has always worked so well on the Russian people. He probably thought that the recent election of a conservative Polish president meant that Poles were tired of supporting Ukraine and that this attack would further drive public opinion away, as this is not their war. But the conservative was elected by a miniscule margin - among the closest in Polish history - and Poles have never indicated any desire to live under Russian dictatorship again. In fact, just the opposite. They also happen to possess the second largest and arguably best equipped army in Europe. Nothing unites a people like the perception that they are under attack. Just as he has consistently miscalculated Ukrainian opposition to Russia, so he appears to be adding Poland to the list of his immutable enemies. JL

Ellie Cook reports in Newsweek
:

Russia intentionally struck a Polish-owned factory in Ukraine. Moscow launched drones at a flooring factory in the central Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia. Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski said the strikes came from "three directions." Eight people were hospitalized after Russian drone strikes on two civilian industrial facilities and four residential buildings in Vinnytsia. The uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) caused "large-scale fires, significant damage and production cannot be resumed for six months. "The targeting of the factory was called "another barbaric attack" by Russia on civilians. The Polish diplomat added: "Putin's criminal war is getting closer to our borders."

Ukraine Adds More Long Range Drones: "Can't Win A Big War If You Only Defend"

Ukraine is accelerating the development of big, long range drones in order to bring more destruction to the Russian war economy. 

The Ukrainians may not - yet - have sufficient ballistic missiles, but it is deploying the drones as an effective means of degrading Russia's war fighting ability as well as public morale. JL

Max Hunder and Sabine Siebold report in The Independent:

Kyiv's planned production this year of 30,000 long-range UAVs, designed to attack targets deep inside Russia such as arms depots and energy facilities, gives Ukraine an increased offensive threat. The average cost of a long-range strike drone ranges from $50,000 to $300,000, about 10 times less than a missile of similar range, although a drone's warhead is smaller. "This is our asymmetrical answer." Ukraine started developing such drones "precisely because we lack missiles." Long-range drone strikes are "one of the main cards Ukraine can play against Russia right now. You can't win a big war if you are only defending."

Russians' Attempted Oskil River Crossings Fail Repeatedly To Ukraine Defense

Russian forces have renewed their multi-year effort to cross the Oskil River in eastern Ukraine. 

But these latest attempts have met the same fate as the now infamous previous tries - dead Russian soldiers, destroyed vehicles and the twisted remains of pontoon bridges. JL

Demian Shevko reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

Russian forces are repeatedly failing in their attempts to build pontoon bridges across the Oskil River in eastern Ukraine. To encircle or storm Kupyansk, they need to establish reliable crossings over the Oskil, namely pontoon bridges capable of transporting armored vehicles.” Despite repeated efforts, Russian forces have so far failed to establish such crossings.

Ukraine's Ground Drone Use Accelerates As Success Attacking Russians Grows

Ukraine is accelerating the use of ground drones (UGVs) on the front line as their success grows in delivering supplies, evacuating wounded troops - and successfully attacking Russian positions. 

The increasing reliability and flexibility of these systems in harsh conditions has enhanced confidence in their use. As the battlefield becomes more lethal for soldiers, ground drones' assistance will only grow. JL

Tania Myronyshena reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine's use of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) has accelerated in recent months. 200 Ukrainian companies are working on UGVs. To keep up with demand, the government is simplifying production rules and accelerating certification. just last week Ukrainian forces for the first time captured Russian troops without the use of infantry, relying solely on drones and ground-based robotic systems. "So far, we haven’t reduced personnel, we’ve reduced risk. Their biggest impact might be that Ukraine could eventually need fewer troops at the frontline and fewer in support roles — logistics, casualty evacuation, and everything that keeps the front running."

Musk's Grok xAI Designed To Shock, Entertain Rather Than Assist

Grok's new xAI 'agents' appear designed more to shock and entertain than to assist users and enhance their application of AI. This is probably an intentional - if possibly misguided - effort to attract  young users' anti-establishment inclinations, which would boost its attractiveness to advertisers and other businesses as Tesla's revenues and profits continue to plunge while Musk's acrimonious public falling out with Donald Trump alienates many of his followers. 

Attempting to pivot from Tesla and government-dependent SpaceX to AI, Musk needs billions to train his models, but his other businesses' travails have made that more challenging. The use of violent and sexually explicit agents is an attempt to differentiate his product from the more sober OpenAI and other offerings, build his base and possibly generate more of that needed financial support. JL

David Ingram reports in NBC News
:

Grok's new xAI characters seem designed to shock and entertain users as xAI’s product launches have sometimes been disastrous. Last week, a new version of Grok veered into Nazism with a series of antisemitic posts. Grok’s companions are a riff on the idea of AI agents (but) Musk continues to push his AI chatbot in an extreme direction, with a willingness to embrace hateful language and sexual content. xAI is burning through $1 billion a month in its race to build the data centers and other infrastructure needed to train AI models as it is becoming an increasingly visible part of Musk’s business empire. Musk’s SpaceX has agreed to invest $2 billion in xAI.

Russia Dropped 250 Glide Bombs On Ukraine Sumy Line - But Its Attack Still Failed

In their desperation to achieve something - anything - that resembles an advance for their winless summer offensive, Russian forces dropped a record 250 glide bombs on a 3 kilometer section of Ukrainian trench near Andriivka in the Sumy sector. 

It made no difference (probably because the Ukrainians had advance warning and pulled back). The subsequent Russian attacks - all by dismounted infantry with no armor and limited artillery support due to degraded supplies - were defeated, and more Russians killed. The Russian motorized infantry and naval infantry units involved were then forced to retreat in order to 'reorganize,' and Russia ended up with even less of Sumy than the sliver it held a few days before the attack. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:
The Russian air force recently dropped 250 glide bombs on a single treeline near Andriivka in Sumy Oblast, making that 3-km-long copse the most bombed place on Earth at the time. It didnt help.  Instead, the Russians - two motor rifle regiments and a naval infantry brigade - retreated last weekend, marking the latest setback for the 50,000-strong Russian force in Sumy. Heavier Ukrainian units - The 79th and 95th Air Assault Brigades and the 225th Assault Regiment, equipped with German-Marder and US Stryker and Bradley fighting vehicles - shrugged off the record bombardment, then flanked and defeated the armor-less Russian units. The end result is that the Russians control less of Sumy now compared to a week ago.

Jul 16, 2025

Russia Cancels Annual Army Exhibition Due To Ukraine Drone Threat

Another unwelcome reminder that Russia - and even Moscow - is no longer safe from Ukrainian drone attack and that normal life will be disrupted as long as the Kremlin prolongs the war. JL

Taras Safronov reports in Militarnyi:

Russia has canceled the Army-2025 military-technical forum, which has been held annually since 2015. The Army Forum is a key exhibition organized by the Russian Ministry of Defense and traditionally held in Patriot Park in Kubinka, near Moscow. In recent months, Russia has tightened security measures in response to Ukrainian drone attacks. These include disabling mobile internet during major events involving senior officials. In May, a Ukrainian long-range drone — reportedly the Lyutyi model — struck a target inside Patriot Park.