SpaceX Stock Drops 16% In 3rd Day of Decline, Now Below IPO

Welcome back to 'the glorious days of yesteryear,' when stocks shot up like rockets, then quickly descended to the level reflected in their financials - assuming they had such a thing. 

What has happened to SpaceX over the past week will be familiar to anyone who endured - or read about - the dotcom boom, when companies with no real business but with .net in their title could go public on a story and a prayer. Or, as some used to say, 'buy the story, sell the news.' The reality is that projected sales and profits never supported SpaceX's hyped up valuation, which is now below a 'mere' $2 trillion. Reversion to the mean comes for us all and, in SpaceX's case, is now getting - somewhat - closer to actual potential. JL

William Gavin reports in Marketwatch and Alexander Osipovich reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Elon Musk’s company is falling ahead of the opening bell, putting its market cap on track to fall below $2 trillion for the first time since its blockbuster IPO. SpaceX shares are down more than 4% premarket, to about $148—below the $150 level where they began trading on June 12. Yesterday, SpaceX shares just had their worst day yet — carrying them below their closing price from their first day of trading less than two weeks ago. The stock finished Monday’s session at $154.60, with declines escalating toward the end of the trading day. SpaceX shares closed well below the $160.95 at the finish on June 12, when the company went public. That means that anyone who bought the stock after its first day of trading has lost money — at least on paper. 

Ukraine's "e-Points" Are Steering Drone Teams Towards Higher Value Targets

One of the most impressive aspects of the evolving Ukrainian way of war is the degree to which they have adapted lessons from private sector managerial theory and market mechanisms to lead and incentivize their forces in order to execute the strategies to achieve the outcomes they want.

One such example is the 'e-points' system which rewards units for hitting and eliminating important targets. New analyses show that the high command's ability to identify shifting priorities is to increase or decrease the number of points awarded. In addition, the troops at the front are able to communicate what they deem important by spending more or fewer points on weapons or other equipment based on their experience and assessment of manufacturers' products. It is, as the Defense Minister has stated, 'about rapid scaling of effective solutions.' JL

Sinead Baker reports in Business Insider:

Ukraine's "e-Points" system, which rewards soldiers for hitting prized targets, is steering soldiers toward higher-value Russian assets. The rewards have worked to "incentivize units along the front line to go after challenging targets - and that's having effects." Previously, soldiers focused on "things in front of you," like infantry and tanks. Now, soldiers are incentivized to "go after more complex targets," including rear-areas more than 100 kms from the front. The point system is one of the factors contributing to Ukraine's momentum, as Kyiv uses new drones and planning to hit 'safe' targets. Points gives Ukraine's command a way to shift battlefield behavior quickly. If the military decides it needs more of a certain target destroyed, it can raise the reward. Units then have a direct reason to adjust because points help them get equipment they need. It helps Ukraine innovate quickly, knowing what weapons front-line soldiers want. "This is about rapid scaling of effective solutions." 

How Attacking Kyiv's Cathedral Exposes Putin's Desperation, Diminished Options

After all the Ukrainians have been through over the past four years, this is the best the Kremlin can do? Attack a world historical religious landmark? As if that is going to change the calculus of the war that Russia is losing on the battlefield, on the seas, in the air and on its economy.

What the attack on the Lavra Cathedral complex reveals is Putin's desperation and his diminishing options. It was a pathetic lashing out of rage and frustration, which simply reflects his impotence. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Russians could have attacked Kyiv's Lavra Cathedral complex any time since 2022. Until this week they did not do so, realizing that attacking such a building of historic, religious and cultural value to Ukrainians held out no strategic benefit but did hold great risk of enraging Ukrainians even more and appalling European opinion. What the attack revealed is that the Russians have little new to add to their terror and threats. Faced with an ongoing Ukrainian long-range assault on their strategic industries, the Russians could not escalate strategically and have no way to do more to the Ukrainian economy or war machine. All they could do to show their desperation was attack a great historical monument. Their way of escalating is now limited to going after soft targets of cultural and emotional value.

Two Russian Battalions Decimated In One Month's Kostiantynivka Fighting

The severity of Russian losses in this crucial sector, the key to Russia's desire to take Ukraine's Fortress Belt cities beyond it, has led to a change in tactics which reflects the Russian desperation. 

Instead of mass meat assaults or infiltration attempts by small teams, the Russians are now sending individual soldiers, accompanies by drones, to attack. The problem is that Ukraine's drone and intelligence superiority make even these efforts unable to succeed. But the broader implication is that if the best the Kremlin can do is send one soldier with a few drones as his 'comrades,' they have little chance of creating a distraction, let alone a breakthrough. JL

Yevhelia Mazur reports in Liga.net:

During the past month of fighting against Ukraine's 100th Mechanized Brigade on the Kostiantynivka front, Russian forces lost the equivalent in strength of two battalions, with 910 soldiers killed or wounded. The 100th and Ukraine's 24th Mechanized Brigade report Russian army has changed its assault tactics and is increasingly sending not groups of several soldiers but individual infantrymen—escorted by drones—toward Ukrainian positions.

US Companies Increasingly Turn To Cheaper Chinese AI

Despite the continuing claims that 'this time is different,' it turns out that AI is still subject to Economics 1: if something becomes too expensive, the market will seek a cheaper alternative.

This is especially true for corporate clients concerned about the returns they still cannot quantify, as well as smaller enterprises that just can't afford extraordinary AI costs.  Some larger companies want to retain relationships with Anthropic and OpenAI because of strategic partnership interests and the brand umbrella, but even Microsoft is reportedly testing Chinese models. The reality is that token-based revenue models have altered the affordability equation. The result will thus inevitably be that less expensive options will have to be embraced for AI use to continue growing. JL

Viola Zhou reports in Rest of World:

While an hourlong coding session costs $10 on Claude, the same work cost less than 50 cents on DeepSeek. U.S.-based developers and small companies are turning to Chinese AI to cut costs. Although Chinese models still lag behind the best US ones in performance, they can handle most tasks at a fraction of the price. DeepSeek’s share of token usage jumped from under 1% to 17% in May. The affordability is especially attractive to independents and startups as well as "medium-sized businesses starting to get into AI but are wary of the costs.” Large companies, especially those in highly regulated industries, are still wary about Chinese models due to concerns about data security, censorship, and geopolitical risk. “Chinese models are becoming part of the global AI infrastructure layer. But usage is only the first step. The next test is whether the Chinese can convert usage into revenue, enterprise trust, and durable distribution.” 

Ukrainian Attacks Cause Russians To Halt All Fuel Sales In Crimea

Not rationed gas for occupied Crimea: No gas. How long can it survive in the modern era without fuel? JL

NPR reports:

Officials  in Russia-occupied Crimea suspended civilian gasoline sales Sunday as Ukraine ramped up attacks on fuel supplies on the Black Sea peninsula. Ukrainian forces have repeatedly targeted fuel supplies to Crimea in recent weeks, triggering the worst energy crisis in the region since it was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. A Crimean oil depot, as well as an oil transport facility in Russia's southern Krasnodar region were among the targets. He described the attacks as part of Ukraine's "long-range sanctions" against Russia's energy infrastructure. 

How Ukraine's Drones Broke Through Moscow's Air Defenses

Moscow is surrounded by a dense ring of air defenses and the oil refinery just outside the city - in which the top of a storage tank blew off after being struck (likely by a misfiring Russian anti-air missile) - is arguably the most heavily defended such facility in the world. And yet, Ukrainian drones found their way through with relative ease.

The reason is that the Ukrainians have been systematically and relentlessly targeting Russian air defense systems since the invasion over four years ago, degrading their capabilities. In addition, the Russian systems are aging and were not designed to hit drones which are smalled and more maneuverable than planes or missiles. And finally, there is the Russian penchant for internal competition, incompetence and corruption, which further limits their effectiveness. The combined weight of those problems is why Ukraine's drones will continue to get through to Moscow. JL

Lauren Kent and colleagues report in CNN:

Thursday's attack on Moscow – the biggest since the start of the full-scale war – was another example of how Ukraine’s strategy to overwhelm Russian air defenses with drones found success. Ukraine has destroyed 166 Russian “anti-air elements” since the start of this year, and 1,432 since 2022. Plus, Russia’s air defenses were not designed to combat drone. Video of firing man portable air defense rockets on a busy highway is indicative of a hasty, ad-hoc and unprofessional response to the attack. One defense missile missed its target, hitting an oil storage tank, “a Russian own-goal,” ending in a cloud of smoke and the  top of the tank blasting into the air. “Russia has a track record of old systems not being 100% reliable.” Modern drones break through because they are more difficult to track than missiles or aircraft. Hundreds of drones coming from multiple directions requires coordination from Russia’s integrated air defense systems, which “is not happening”