Russian General Who Ordered Ukraine Children's Hospital Bombing Shot in Russia

The Air Force squadrons of long range bombers under the general's command have been firing cruise missiles at civilian Ukrainian targets since the start of the invasion. 

Their arguably most heinous crime was hitting a children's hospital in Kyiv in 2024. It took two years, but the Ukrainians have neither forgotten nor forgiven. JL

Sonia Kozatskyi reports in Militarnyi:

Major General Nikolai Varpakhovich, commander of the 22nd Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Division of the Long-Range Aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, was seriously wounded in Russia. The assailant rode up to a private home on a motorcycle while wearing a helmet and shot the high-ranking Russian military officer. One bullet struck the officer in the torso and another in the face. Varpakhovich was hospitalized in critical condition. Aircraft aircraft commanded by the general have been firing cruise missiles at Ukraine since the start of the invasion. In particular, they attacked the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital in Kyiv with a Kh-101 missile in the summer of 2024. 

Ukraine's Lyman Cauldron Shows "Systematic Russian Defensive Failure"

Ukraine's local counterattacks around Lyman have succeeded beyond expectation and have become a strategic, not just tactical, success. 

The counterattacks have become a counteroffensive which risks trapping several thousand Russians in a cauldron encirclement and has disrupted Kremlin plans to take Ukraine's Fortress Belt. Ukraine's 3rd Corps, which is leading the assault, is also demonstrating a drone, light armor and infantry combined arms approach which could be the key to renewed offensive success in Ukraine's drone dominated battlefields. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

The Ukrainian ground gains and battle successes north of Lyman have been the result of months of small-scale infantry assaults covered drones to rout Russian defenders from positions. Ukraine's 3rd Corps, leading the attack, is a proponent of drone-led tactics preceding, covering and providing fire support to small infantry units advancing in light armored vehicles to Russian positions to disembark and mop up resistance on foot. Non-Ukrainian sources point to hard AFU ground gains in rough, wooded and swampy terrain northeast of Lyman. Ukrainian advances have bitten too deeply into formerly Russian-controlled territory for Russian forces to take them back without prohibitive losses. "This  is a systematic failure of the Russian defense. The AFU has seized the initiative and can thus launch a comprehensive strategic offensive from local successes."

Russia Faces 'Geopolitically Strategic Asymmetry' As Ukraine, Europe Strengthen Ties

'Geopolitically strategic asymmetry' is a polite way of saying Russia is increasingly screwed. And the Kremlin has no one to blame but itself. By invading, then failing over almost five years of brutal warfare to subdue its smaller target and then compounding that failure by committing horrific war crimes on the ground and from the air - as well as subjecting itself to aerial drone and missile retribution - the Russians have not only become a global pariah, but have exposed their own vulnerabilities while Ukraine's support grows. 

Putin's two closest allies, Iran and North Korea, are bankrupt and the former is, itself, under attack. China faces economic challenges of its own so is using Russia's even greater weakness to demand bigger discounts on what oil and other resources Russia can still manage to deliver. Ukraine, meanwhile is getting stronger both on the battlefield and economically, while its European partners, as well as those from the rest of the civilized world, instead of querulously backing down as Putin expected, have increased their Ukrainian support. Europe, it should be added, is doing quite well economically, especially when compared to Russia's erstwhile 'allies.' Outraged that it is now suffering while Europe refuses to back down, the Kremlin is amping up its attacks on NATO countries, but at this stage, those are more likely to backfire into even more support than not. JL

Yaroslav Trofimov reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Russia faces a fundamental asymmetry as it seeks to beat Ukraine into submission. Kyiv can rely on a secure hinterland beyond its borders—Europe—for economic resilience and military logistics. Ukraine’s military uses hubs in countries like Poland, Germany and Romania, while Ukrainian defense companies have established production lines across Europe. The Kremlin, whose industries are under attack by Ukrainian missiles and drones, has no such backup. None of Russia's allies are openly supporting its war. Hits to Russia’s economy translate more directly into damage to it’s ability to keep the war going. Russia, has to pay for its war at a time when its economy is weak. Moscow’s closest allies, Iran and North Korea, are broke. China faces economic headwinds. Many in Russia are calling for escalation against Europe but that could massively backfire. Ukraine’s Western supporters, and Ukraine itself, have ways of inflicting more pain on Russia if the conflict escalates. 

Spetznaz Block Suggests Putin Prefers Lyman Pocket Death Fight To Retreat

Units of Russia's 144th Motor Rifle Division trapped in the Lyman salient are in growing danger of being encircled by Ukrainian forces. There is one bridge which would allow either reinforcements in or escape out. But the Kremlin evidently sees there is no point in sending any more of its depleted army into the pocket - and a Spetsnaz blocking company is not letting anyone out.

This suggests that Putin prefers to have the trapped soldiers continue fighting to the death, rather than suffer the humiliation of a major retreat. Ukraine appears happy to oblige. JL

Shankar Narayan reports in Medium:

Ukraine  is now methodically eating away at the Lyman salient, which Putin’s forces took more than a year to build. A number of  Russian units are caught in the Ukrainian sweep. A significant share belongs to the 144th Motor Rifle Division. The Terny crossing is the only vehicle exit across the Zherebets River. There is one usable bridge, and the 29th Spetsnaz Company is positioned at its eastern exit. Ukraine could have destroyed the bridge but has not. That suggests Ukraine wants to preserve it. Why is Russian spetsnaz company guarding the exit when no reinforcements are crossing the bridge in the other direction?  The depleted regiments inside remain where they are. Stalin would understand this immediately. There has been no reinforcement of this pocket. If Russian commanders have refused to reinforce this sector even as Ukrainian forces move deeper into it, Moscow has given up on holding the salient. It looks as though Putin has abandoned the 144th Motor Rifle Division.

Russia's Desperate Race To Replace Starlink Is Faltering

The Kremlin is desperate to replace the Starlink system it is no longer able to use with one of its own. but that effort is faltering due to two sets of problems. 

The first is that the Russians have not been able to achieve the necessary operational altitudes for the Rassvet satellites. These are problems which may, in the future, be corrected with additional development work, but Kremlin pressure to produce a working system immediately appears to be undermining the process in the long term. This challenge has been compounded by Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on the Russian factories that produce the electronic components and rockets necessary to launch and guide the system, adding to the expected delays in deployment. JL

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

Russia is rushing to launch satellites called "Rassvet" to replace Starlink after it lost access to the SpaceX-owned network but Moscow’s version continues to hit snags, with none of the 16 Rassvet satellites launched on July 19 reaching an altitude of 340 miles, short of the intended 540-mile operational altitude, with many only reaching180 miles; some are experiencing orbital decay, and two are heading for reentry into Earth’s atmosphere. “It seems the rate of malfunction has been higher than Starlink’s first gen rate of failure.” The failure of all 16 satellites from its second launch to reach operational altitudes suggests Moscow was not ready to roll out the constellation. "Russia may have been unprepared to deploy at this pace and will likely face additional delays." Adding to Russia's woes, on August 15, Ukraine struck the Space Center in Samara with cruise missiles, targeting the only factory to assemble the Soyuz-2.1b rockets used to launch Rassvet satellites.

Ukraine's "Massive" Dobropillia Counterattacks Stop Russian Fortress Belt Advance

As reports grow about Russia's attempted assault on Ukraine's Fortress Belt having stalled, the reasons are becoming clearer. Ukrainian forces have launched 'massive' counterattacks in several sectors, including Dobropillia, which have disrupted the Russian plans.

Already suffering from war-high casualties and faltering recruitment of new replacements, the Russian units on the front are unable to defend effectively against the aggressive and opportunistic Ukrainian efforts. The result is that Russia cannot muster sufficient mass to hold off the Ukrainian attacks while also attempting to advance on a heavily fortified and defended series of strong points. This series of combined obstacles has resulted in the summer's failed offensive plan. JL

RFU News reports:

On the Pokrovsk front, the Ukrainians have launched a massive counterattack. Russian sources report they are facing a wave of Ukrainian counterattacks along the frontline in the Dobropillia sector. Ukrainian assault groups are clearing out Russian infiltrators in the northeastern and eastern parts of the city. If Russian infiltrators cannot consolidate and their logistics are disrupted, Ukraine can push them away from the city. (And) if Russian advances stall here, they cannot encircle Sloviansk and Kramatorsk 

Russian Troops Increasingly Surrender To Ukrainian Aerial and Ground Drones

Ukrainian forces capitalizing on Russian troops' fear of drones by guiding attack drones towards groups of Russian soldiers, then, at the last minute, sending another drone with a loud speaker to offer them the chance to surrender, which increasing numbers do.

Ukraine's drone operators see the fear and exhaustion on the faces of the frequently under-supplied Russian troops and so play on that psychological disadvantage. They have even dropped leaflets and posted videos on social media channels popular with Russian troops, explaining to them how to surrender to a drone. Hundreds have reportedly done so. JL 

Harry Thompson reports in The Daily Beast:

Putin's troops are surrendering to drones. Ukraine has become a world leader in drone warfare, and is now using that expertise against Russian troops in an effort to force them to surrender. Last winter, some 100 Russians surrendered to drones, according to former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. "We see their anxiety, because the camera captures a lot. We see their faces. You see how they tremble, how they worry, how scared they are."  said a Ukrainian drone operator. Ukraine has capitalized on that fear. After observation drones spot troops and guide attack drones onto them, the final stage is to break the will of the exhausted troops and get them to lay down their arms. To do this, another drone fitted with a loudspeaker offer troops—many of whom are injured or have watched their comrades die—the opportunity to surrender. "Establish eye contact with the drone," and then "Lay down your weapon. Raise your hands. Show that you want to surrender."