A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Nov 5, 2026

On November 1, Russia Lost One Soldier Every 35 Seconds

The scale of Russian losses has become so enormous that they have become mind-numbing - at least for those who are not the casualties themselves. JL

Jimmy Rushton reports in the Kyiv Independent:
Russian Russian forces suffered a record 2,500 personnel losses on Nov. 1, approximately one every 35 seconds. "These are the enemy's largest daily losses during the entire full-scale war," October 2026 was the deadliest month for Russian troops since the start of the full-scale invasion. Russian forces suffered 54,400 personnel losses in October, roughly equivalent to the population of Vorkuta, a city in Russia.

North Korean Hackers' Fake Job Interviews, AI Made $6.3 Billion Binance Heist

There is a delicious irony in the fact that a crypto firm known for its attempts to evade regulation and taxes was hacked and ripped off by a North Korean government known for its expertise in exploiting in firms' security defenses. Karma. JL

Cris Tolomia reports in Quartz:

Binance said hackers from North Korea used fake job interviews and malicious software to steal $6.3 billion from the exchange. The attack began in June, when a staffer who builds Binance's wallets installed a doctored AI tool. Binance spotted the problem and swapped out the device, though the hacker learned the employee's role and those of others on the wallet team. In September, someone posing as a project director approached a second software engineer through a job hunting platform. That engineer took part in an interview on a social messaging app with someone posing as the CEO of an invented company, and was told to download an assignment that held a "malicious code repository." On Oct. 20, the attackers leveraged an internal AI along with the second engineer's infected computer to seize command of the devices belonging to two other engineers. On Oct. 29, the attackers logged in with stolen credentials and ran a malicious script that kicked off the theft,

Nov 4, 2026

Six KM Tunnel Allows Ukraine To Move Troops, Supplies Underground

A clever innovation by Ukrainian engineering troops, the tunnel permits the movement of men, supplies and medical evacuations with less risk from drone attack. JL

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:
An underground tunnel nearly six kilometres long has been constructed in Donetsk Oblast for Ukrainian forces, ensuring the uninterrupted movement of personnel and vehicles, the supply of ammunition and provisions, and medical evacuation. The engineering structure ensures concealed movement. Devised by military engineers, the 81st Airmobile Brigade used an amphibious transport vehicle throughout the entire winter to conduct medical evacuations.

Continuing To Defy Trump, Ukraine Strikes More Russian Oil Refineries

In continued defiance of Trump's requests that Ukraine stop attacking Russian refineries, Ukrainian drones attacked one of the Kremlin's largest refineries at Yaroslavl. 

Given the electoral beating Trump suffered yesterday, expect Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries to escalate. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:
A Ukrainian drone attack struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries overnight on Nov. 3, damaging infrastructure, injuring two employees and sparking multiple fires. At least five large fires were visible across the facility. The latest attack comes as Ukraine has resumed its campaign against Russian oil infrastructure following a nearly two-week lull in reported strikes on the country’s refineries. The pause followed mounting pressure from US President Donald Trump, who urged President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop targeting Russian oil refineries and diesel production facilities.

AI and Its Billionaires Were On the Midterm Ballot. And They Lost

Like Donald Trump, with whom it has become inextricably allied, AI was on the ballot yesterday even though its name never actually appeared. 

The arrogant disregard for the impact of data centers on electricity and water costs - to say nothing of their size and noise - as well as the billions and trillions being bandied about from which Americans well knew they would never financially benefit and might well suffer, all contributed to the historic Democratic electoral sweep. And from Elon Musk's flaunting of his wealth, to Jeff Bezos wedding to Sam Altman's and Mark Zucckerberg's smug disregard for public concerns, the faces of AI were as much an issue as the technology itself. While their money cannot be gainsaid, expect some sort of regulatory imposition to follow. JL

Calder McHugh and colleagues report in Politico:
Elon Musk spent a half-billion dollars, only to see his home of Texas go blue. Allies like Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz and their Silicon Valley firm — as well as OpenAI’s Greg Brockman — plowed tens of millions of dollars into super PACs that suffered major upsets. Crypto money was crushed in Ohio, Democrats who ran against Big Tech claimed decisive victories Tuesday. Democrats who won Senate races in South Carolina and Ohio cast their opponents as the faces of a data center build-out and frequently name-checked “Big Tech” as a primary American villain. Democrat gubernatorial winners — Amy Acton in Ohio, Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, David Crowley in Wisconsin, Troy Jackson in Maine and Jocelyn Benson in Michigan — all supported a data center moratorium. “The American people rejected the alliance of Big AI and Big Government. Voters rejected Republicans in part because they were bought and paid for by AI billionaires,” 

Nov 3, 2026

Ukraine's Smarter War Strategy Is Beating Russia's Mass

It doesn't always work this way, but smart is consistently beating big as Ukraine's data driven tactics and strategy are driving Russian forces back - for two months in a row now - while inflicting ever higher casualties. JL

Ryder Blackthorn reports in Frontline Signal:
Ukraine is not only asking, “Can we shoot down this drone?” It’s asking, “Can we make the next drone attack harder to launch?” That’s the smarter question. This is the part that makes the story bigger than another strike roundup. Ukraine is not only burning parts of Russia’s war machine. It’s building its own. Hit enough pieces of the chain, and Russia has to spend more time protecting, repairing, rerouting, replacing, and explaining. Russia is gambling on mass, hoping that enough bodies will finally tip the scales. Ukraine is betting on systems — the kind that outlast any single mobilization wave, that keep learning, adapting, and producing results long after the last conscript is dragged to the front.

Four New Russian Salients Picked Off By Ukraine As Vivaldi Tactics Spread

Applying the model that worked so well during Operation Vivaldi, Ukrainian forces have now cut off four additional Russian salients  on the Donbas front, isolating the Russian units caught in those cauldrons while further disrupting Russia's plans, such as they remain. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:
By virtue of Operation Vivaldi and the recently launched Operation Veles(just north of Lyman in the Kupiansk area of Kharkiv oblast) Ukraine has disrupted and largely eliminated several major Russian salients threatening the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. But more such salients remain. The possibility of now encircling and cutting off multiple different sized Russian garrisons in the area is quite real. Russian forces are still being surprised by seeing Ukrainian units, both Unmanned Ground Assault robots and Special Forces suddenly appear in what they had previously thought to be their safe rear. Disconnected Russian army units, now largely cut off from their logistical tail, with their backs to the Zherebets and Siverskyi Donet rivers even as Ukrainian troops threaten their rear and escape routes, make for salients that are prone to collapse