Russia Has Now Run Out Of Armored Vehicles Even Before Predicted Date

While some popular western media continue to flog Kremlin-generated propaganda about Ukraine's imminent threat from ostensible Russian offensives, the harsh reality is that Moscow's troops have not made any significant gains in a year and a half. 

The reason Russia has not been able to capitalize on its manpower advantage - and why it has focused on terror bombing of Ukrainian civilian targets - is that it has now, this summer of 2025, effectively run out of enough armored vehicles to conduct 'offensive operations.' In other words, what are popularly known as attacks. This was predicted to happen early in 2026, assuming the Kremlin continued to suffer the same losses as in 2024. In fact, Russian losses in 2025 have been worse than last year's, hence, the loss of armor and of the ability to accomplish anything beyond minor tactical blips. JL 

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

"Russia will not have sufficient main battle tanks to conduct effective offensive operations beyond early 2026 if it maintains the same operational tempo and suffers the same losses as in 2024. "Ukrainian brigades are depleted. Russia regiments are flush with bodies. But the manpower disparity hasn’t translated into any breakthroughs along the 700-mile front line of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine. Not since the spring of 2024 and the Russian breakout from the ruins of Avdiivka. It's apparent why: with more than 20,000 Russian tanks, fighting vehicles and other heavy equipment lying blown up or burned out along the front line, these troops are now, finally and officially, out of armored vehicles.

Ukraine is desperately short of trained infantry. Between them, Kyiv’s roughly 130 army, marine, air-assault, national guard and territorial brigades need 80,000 fresh infantry to bring them back to full strength. But Ukraine’s corrupt, unpopular mobilization system hasn’t been able to find those 80,000 new troops. At least not quickly.

Meanwhile, the Russian armed forces are still managing to recruit 30,000 fresh troops a month through a combination of extremely generous enlistment bonuses, thuggish tactics and deceptive enlistment contracts. That’s slightly more troops than Russia loses every month.

Ukrainian brigades are depleted. Russia regiments are flush with bodies. But the huge manpower disparity hasn’t translated into any meaningful breakthroughs along the 700-mile front line of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine. Not since the spring of 2024 and the Russian breakout from the ruins of Avdiivka.

It’s apparent why. Yes, the Russian force in Ukraine has plenty of troops—some 600,000, up from 200,000 on the eve of the wider invasion in February 2022. But with more than 20,000 Russian tanks, fighting vehicles and other heavy equipment lying blown up or burned out along the front line, these troops are now, finally and officially, out of armored vehicles. 

"The IISS assesses that Russia will not have sufficient main battle tanks to conduct effective offensive operations beyond early 2026 if it maintains the same operational tempo and suffers the same losses as in 2024."