Putin's Use of Hypersonic Missile Reveals Growing Desperation

Last night, Russia fired a hypersonic intercontinental ballistic missile at civilian targets in Ukraine. While intended to remind everyone of Russia's supposed might, what it actually did was underscore how weak and ineffectual the Russians have become. 

In the course of one week, the UK raided and kidnapped the head of one of Russia's client states - Venezuela - which the Russians were powerless to prevent despite Russian air defenses and Cuban mercenaries guarding the base from which he was taken. Then the US stopped and boarded two Russian shadow fleet tankers, one of which supposedly protected by a Russian sub. All of this served as an object lesson in Russia's inability to project actual power, as if anyone with a pulse watching what has happened in Ukraine over the past four years had not already absorbed that lesson. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Putin has endured a bad couple of weeks for Russia’s position in the world. The US raid in Venezuela easily overcame Russian air defences that protected Venezuelan airspace. It demonstrated that Russian defences can be penetrated as the Ukrainians have shown over the last few years. And as Putin’s assurances to the Iranian and Syrian regimes proved empty, the Venezuelan government saw no Russian support. The US then seized two of Russia’s shadow fleet tankers without resistance. The Russians know the rest of the world saw their inability to shape American actions in Venezuela, and that this makes them look weak. Then, the Ukrainians shut down all of the airports in the Moscow region and forced the Russians to shut their mobile phone networks across the area. This combination of events shows how bankrupt the Russian strategy is. 

Overnight in Ukraine, Russia launched yet another series of coordinated aerial strikes on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. These strikes are a nightly feature of contemporary life in Ukraine. And like the many raids against the Ukrainian people since 2022, the overnight drone and missile attacks resulted in death, destruction and misery for people across Ukraine.

The image below shows the Russian aerial strikes against Ukraine since the beginning of 2026.

Russia’s aerial strikes against Ukraine since 1 January 2026. Source: Ukrainian Air Force

In the lead up to last night, the President of Ukraine warned his citizens that the evening could see significant Russian strikes against his country. He stated that:

Another massive Russian attack may happen tonight. It is important to pay attention to air raid alerts and go to shelters when necessary. The Russians haven’t changed one bit. They are trying to exploit the harsh winter weather, which has worsened significantly across many of our regions and is causing serious problems on the roads and with utilities.

Warning such as this are not a daily event for Zelenskyy. Clearly the Ukrainians had the intelligence and other indicators that the Russians were up to something different.

The Ukrainians were right.

During the night, Russia appears to have used an Oreshnik Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile against a target near the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. The missile struck a large, underground gas storage facility, and resulted in blackouts across the region. Videos of the strike appear to show the Oreshnik employed multiple warheads, or what is known as MIRVs (Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicles).

The Oreshnik missile has a range of up to 5,500 kilometres and can mount both single or multiple conventional and nuclear warheads. Travelling at speeds over 12,000 kilometres per hour, this is a missile which very few defence systems can intercept. The Israeli The excellent Missile Matters Substack had a good feature on this missile back in November 2024, which you can read here.

Just a week ago, Russia showed off Belarus-based Oreshnik missiles. The Russian military shared videos of the missile being transported in its erector-launcher vehicle. Ostensibly in Belarus as a response to the imaginary attack on one of Putin’s mansions, this is a deployment of a missile that is designed to have a strategic shaping function more than a military impact on the war in Ukraine.

The aim of this article is to explore Putin’s compounding strategic challenges in the past week, and the past year, and how this shapes his decision-making around the use of the Oreshnik missile.

Putin’s Bad Week

Image: Kremlin media

One of the key reasons for the deployment of the Oreshnik to Belarus, and its use against a civilian infrastructure target in Lviv, is to demonstrate that Russia remains a nuclear-armed, world power. In this guise, it is a psychological weapon – an instrument of Putin’s cognitive war against Ukraine and the West – rather than a weapon of mass physical destruction.

Putin has endured a bad couple of weeks in regard to Russia’s position in the world. First, the American raid into Venezuela last week, which resulted in the capture of President Maduro and the death of the Cuban soldiers protecting him, appeared to have easily overcome the Russian air defences that allegedly protected Venezuelan airspace. Now, it was not actually that simple, and an array of EW aircraft including the superb F-18G (Growler) electronic attack aircraft were used to clear a secure route in and out of the objective area. But it demonstrated that Russian air defences can be penetrated with a little thinking and planning – just as the Ukrainians have shown over the last few years.

Second, Russian assurances that they had Maduro’s back were proven to be hollow. Just as Putin’s assurances to the Iranian and Syrian regimes proved empty in the past two years, the Venezuelan government saw no Russian support – with the exception of thoughts and prayers – as the American raid was executed over a three-hour period. The Russians are not total idiots; they know the rest of the world saw their inability to shape American actions in Venezuela, and that this makes them look weak.

Next, the Ukrainian long-range strike campaign has continued hitting Russian oil, military and infrastructure targets. Importantly, for a 48-hour period this week, the Ukrainians were able to shut down all of the airports in the Moscow region and force the Russians to shut down their mobile phone networks across the same area. Given the massive population of the Russian capital, this will be noticed by the populace. It will certainly be noticed by Putin supporters, who were unable to fly out of Moscow to their dacha’s elsewhere in the country or to their warm climate holiday locations overseas.

Finally, American Coast Guard and military forces (assisted by the UK) undertook a boarding operation to seize one of Russia’s shadow fleet tankers, the Bella 1, in the north Atlantic. As the official media release by the British government notes:

The Bella 1 is sanctioned by the U.S. under its counter-Iran sanctions, aimed at stopping Iran from fuelling instability in the Middle East through the profits of illegal oil sales. The ship, initially flying a false flag, turned off its transponders while at sea and sought to reflag while being pursued, indicating its nefarious links to global sanctions evasion. Assessments going back several years that the Bella 1 has been involved in illegal activity, linked to international terrorism and crime including Hezbollah, and part of the web of rising shadow activity that fuels and finances nefarious activity across the globe.

Allegedly protected by a Russian submarine and other assets, the Americans were able to seize the vessel with no Russian interference.

While Putin has managed to claw back a little bit of credibility with the authoritarian club in the past year, and manipulate the Trump administration, this was a bad week for him. The combination of the events in Venezuela (coming after Syria and Iran), around Moscow, and on the high seas shows just how bankrupt Russian strategy is, and how little power Russia has to shape events or respond to military contingencies involving its allies and friends beyond its borders