In Its 2nd Month, Ukraine Advance Wreaks Havoc, Exploits Russian Weaknesses

The Ukrainian southeastern counterattack continues to roll as Russian vulnerabilities in the region reveal new opportunities. The primary problem for the Kremlin's forces was that they held gray zone and even ostensibly occupied areas with inadequate troops, creating gaps which the Ukrainians have exploited.

The Russians have lost between 100 and 200 miles of territory, significant casualties and damaged equipment, as well as two battalion commanders killed by Ukrainian assault units and are in position to take the forward operating base of an entire Russian Combined Arms Army. JL

The Institute for the Study of War and David Axe in Trench Art report:

Ukraine's counteroffensive is now in its second month. After clearing Russians from 100 square miles of the gray zone east of Pokrovs’ke, advancing miles into Russian-controlled territory, Ukrainian paratroopers are within striking distance of Uspenivka, the forward base of the Russian 36th Combined Arms Army. Ukrainian infantry suppressed Russian recon and drone operators after infiltrating a sector where Russian forces did not have significant manpower. Ukraine has eliminated two Russian battalion commanders due to the dispersed, non-linear frontline. Russia did not have sufficient manpower and equipment to defend and develop advances along the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka sectors and need to commit additional resources as Ukrainian infantry and mechanized elements exploited gaps in Russian defenses

Ukraine’s southeast counteroffensive, now grinding into its second month, has achieved one of its main objectives. It has bought space and time for Ukrainian engineers to dig new fortifications around the town of Pokrovs’ke, which buttresses Ukrainian defenses between the a clutch of Russian field armies and, 50 miles to the west, the free city of Zaporizhzhia and its 700,000 pre-war residents.

But there’s another, more ambitious goal—and the Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade is close to achieving that, too.

After clearing Russian infantry from 100 square miles of the disputed gray zone east of Pokrovs’ke and advancing a few miles into firmly Russian-controlled territory, the Ukrainian paratroopers are within striking distance of the village of Uspenivka, the forward base of the Russian 36th Combined Arms Army, one of three field armies aiming to march on Zaporizhzhia.

“They’re close,” observer Thorkill wrote about the Ukrainian paratroopers. “It’s just a matter of capturing two hills and one village.” 

Ukrainian forces conducted mutually supporting drives in the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions in late 2025 and early 2026, respectively, to push Russian forces from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and to undermine Russian preparations for a spring offensive. Ukrainian forces first set conditions for a flank attack north of Hulyaipole in late 2025 and later launched counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka direction starting in late January 2026. Ukrainian 1st Separate Assault Regiment Commander Captain Dmytro Filatov stated that the regiment’s elements redeployed to an area between Dobropillya and Nove Zaporizhzhia (both north of Hulyaipole and on the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border) in late 2025 to conduct a flank attack and push Russian forces from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[13] Filatov stated that Ukrainian offensive operations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast do not mark the start of a new “counteroffensive,” as these counterattacks aim to stabilize the frontline and improve Ukraine’s positions amidst Russian troop redeployments to the area. Filatov stated that Russian forces considered conducting offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction as part of their “pre-spring” offensive campaign, implying that Russian forces may have sought to use attacks in the Oleksandrivka direction to set conditions for offensive operations in the Pokrovsk and Lyman direction in the spring. Ukraine’s Airborne Assault Forces reported on March 2 that its elements launched an “offensive operation” in the Oleksandrivka direction on January 29, and Komarenko stated that Ukrainian counterattacks in the area are part of a planned operation.[14]

Ukrainian forces were likely able to rapidly advance in the Oleksandrivka direction after infiltrating dispersed Russian positions in poor weather conditions and suppressing Russian drone-based defenses. The commander of a Ukrainian airborne assault battalion, which deployed to the Oleksandrivka direction in late January 2026, reported that Ukrainian forces infiltrated into Russian positions under the cover of snow and fog during the winter.[15] Snowy and foggy weather conditions likely hindered Russian drone operations, such as aerial reconnaissance and strikes, due to poor visibility. The commander noted that the battalion’s infantry elements suppressed Russian reconnaissance capabilities and drone operators, encircled 60 Russian servicemen, and captured three prisoners of war (POWs) after successfully infiltrating behind Russian lines. Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces Commander Major General Oleh Apostol, who reportedly commands the Ukrainian counterattacks in Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions, stated that the Ukrainian General Staff selected a frontline sector where Russian forces did not have significant manpower concentrations, which likely enabled Ukrainian infiltrations.[16] Apostol stated that Ukrainian forces have also eliminated two Russian battalion commanders during the counterattacks. Russian milbloggers similarly acknowledged that Ukrainian forces were able to infiltrate Russian positions in small groups and conduct mechanized assaults into Novohryhorivka due to the dispersed and non-linear character of the frontline.[17] ISW assessed in December 2025 that Russia did not have sufficient manpower and equipment to defend and develop simultaneous advances along the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions and would need to either reduce the area of responsibility or commit additional resources to these directions.[18] Ukrainian forces — both infantry and mechanized elements — appear to have exploited gaps in Russian defenses, exacerbated by decreased Russian drone activity amid poor weather conditions.