Decimus reports in Daily Kos:
Ukraine is cutting off the Russian Army in southern Ukraine from its main supply route, Putin's cherished “land bridge” along Ukraine’s Azov sea board linking Crimea (via the Kerch Bridge) to southern Ukraine and Russia along the M14 Highway. The Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps struck Russian military targets near Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast (105 kilometers from the frontline) and is interdicting Russian logistics at depths of 160 kilometers along the T-0509 Mariupol-Donetsk City highway. Ukrainian drones operate along the T-0509 95 to 104 kilometers from the front and within Mariupol along the M-14 Mariupol-Berdyansk-Melitopol highway. The T-0509 supplies Russian forces north of Mariupol, supporting the Russian offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt. “The entirety of Ukraine not under our control will become a kill zone for the Russians. This is the logic of technical progress."Ukraine is quietly doing something remarkable, amazing even … effectively cutting Putin’s much cherished dream “legacy project” and one of the major predicates for his aggression against Ukraine … creating a “land bridge” along Ukraine’s Azov sea board linking occupied Crimea(via the Kerch Bridge) to southern Ukraine and Russia along the M14 International Highway. By making it impossible for Russia to use the M14(and its connection to the R-280 at Dzhankoi in Crimea), Ukraine is slowly but effectively cutting off the Russian Army in southern Ukraine from its main supply route. Russia’s huge army now deployed in southern Ukraine(Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia) could be slowly starved of the requisite supplies in the field. The Kerch Bridge, too will come down … when the time is right. For now Ukraine sees value in letting it stay up, as it is consuming a fair amount of Russia’s increasingly scarce air defense and naval assets to protect it.
Unlike the much hyped Summer 2023 counteroffensive which basically had the same end goal, Ukraine is doing it without putting a single infantry boot on the ground along the land bridge. Not yet, anyway. To think that in 2023 Ukraine placed tens of thousands of troops, thousands of armor and equipment into the deadly maw of the “Surovikin Wall” … to no avail.
According to analyst Jan Kallberg, back in the 2023 counteroffensive, the goal of the Ukrainian general staff was to push far enough overland to get within artillery range of the “land bridge” in order to interdict Russian logistics:
Ukrainian forces are reconnoitering and interdicting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in and near occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast (about 105 kilometers from the frontline), demonstrating increased capabilities as part of Ukraine’s intensifying mid-range strike campaign.”
Ukrainian forces are reconnoitering and interdicting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in and near occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast (about 105 kilometers from the frontline), demonstrating increased capabilities as part of Ukraine’s intensifying mid-range strike campaign. The Ukrainian 1st Azov National Guard Corps reported on May 8 that it struck Russian military targets near occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast (roughly 105 kilometers from the frontline) and is interdicting Russian logistics at depths of up to 160 kilometers from drone operator positions. Geolocated footage published on May 6 and 8, including from the 1st Azov Corps, confirms that Ukrainian forces flew drones and struck a truck along the T-0509 Mariupol-Donetsk City highway (also called the H-20 highway) at a point approximately 95 kilometers from the frontline. Additional geolocated footage from the 1st Azov Corps shows Ukrainian drones operating at points along the T-0509 highway about 95 to 104 kilometers from the frontline and within Mariupol itself along the M-14 Mariupol-Berdyansk-Melitopol highway. The T-0509 supplies Russian forces operating along the frontline north of Mariupol and further northeast, supporting the ongoing Russian offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt.
More here:
The AFU Cut The Occupants’ Land Corridor To Crimea
And here:Ukraine’s Defense Forces Have Already Reached Mariupol
ISW analyzed how this could affect the course of the war.
And here:
“Instant destruction.” Ukraine cuts off Russian logistics with Crimea
The Mariupol highway is burning. It is impossible for military equipment to pass. Hornets are flying. Instant destruction, — write local residents on their social networks.
https://news.online.ua/en/instant-destruction-ukraine-cuts-off-russian-logistics-with-crimea-904264
And here:
Reports of Ukrainian UAVs near Mariupol as part of Battlefield Air Interdiction (BAI) efforts targeting the occupiers’ logistics have caused deep concern among Russian milbloggers, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on May 11.Analysts noted that on May 10, Russian milbloggers expressed alarm over footage showing Ukrainian Hornet UAVs operating freely over the T-0509 Mariupol-Donetsk highway (also known as the H-10) near occupied Mariupol, attacking Russian fuel trucks and other military transport vehicles.
One of the “milbloggers” expressed concern that the situation along the ground lines of communication near the occupied city is beginning to resemble the situation on the M-30 Horlivka-Panteleimonivka-Yasynuvata-Donetsk highway. There, according to the milblogger, Ukrainian defenders have paralyzed Russian logistics using drones.
So what exactly is the M14 Highway(and its feeder roads) and what makes it such a critical Russian logistics artery in occupied southeastern Ukraine? Highway M14 is a Ukrainian international highway traversing southern Ukraine from Odesa on the western Black Sea to Novoazovsk near the Russian border on the Sea of Azov in the east, linking key maritime ports and facilitating overland transport corridors. The route passes through major regional centers including Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Melitopol, following a coastal path that offers scenic views while serving industrial and logistical needs.
Militarily, the M14 is the primary overland transport artery connecting the Russian mainland to occupied Crimea and Donbas. Controlling it allows the Russian army to sustain operations in southern Ukraine, while losing control could starve those forces of supplies, fuel, and reinforcements(Kherson Retreat 2.0?). For Ukraine, capturing the M14 (particularly at key junctions like Melitopol) would cut off Russian logistics, isolate occupied territories, and potentially put Crimea within range of Ukrainian missile strikes, forcing Russia onto the defense instead of the offensive which has been its accustomed posture since the beginning of hostilities.
For Russia, holding the M14 is essential to maintain the “land bridge” and protect its western flank from Ukrainian forces. However, recent Ukrainian drone strikes have demonstrated that even without full territorial control, Ukraine can disrupt logistics along the highway, degrading Russian operational capacity. Losing the M14 will be a major turning point that could lead to the collapse of the Russian war effort in the south of Ukraine. The eastern sections of the M14 may still be under Russian control, but the fact that Ukrainian forces are now successfully targeting logistics and disrupting traffic along the route, causing so much damage and disruption that regional administrators have had to recently announce traffic restrictions points to a significant Ukrainian tactical victory which has got to be a deeply worrying sign for the folks in the Kremlin.
It is perhaps worth noting that for a long time the R280-M14 land bridge nexus was viewed by Russians residing in occupied Crimea as their alternate route back home to Russia if the Kerch Bridge got blown or for some reason things went really sideways in Crimea. Now the Ukrainians have effectively blocked that escape route, too. If things continue this way, Russia may soon have to launch its own version of “Dunkirk” flotilla to extricate from the beaches not only its garrison but also Russians who have migrated to Crimea since 2014 and illegally purloined Ukrainian properties, including the beach front home once owned by Volodymyr and Olena Zelenskyy which was publicly auctioned off:
But has been the case for Russia’s war in Ukraine, even their belated attempt to counter the growing Ukrainian control of critical logistics in Southern Ukraine by deploying their elite Rubicon drone unit also just went up in flames. Ukraine took care of that, too:
The most dangerous drone unit Russia has just lost its logistics base near Mariupol — Ukraine found it and burned itIt is becoming increasingly clear that Putin’s strategy of using his long fires for hammering Ukrainian civil society into abject penury and thereby force their government to sue for “peace” on his terms, has failed. His belated decision now to use some of his long fires on Ukrainian military sites as well, has come too late for it to have much effect in reversing his army’s falling fortunes on the battlefield where Ukraine is now reportedly the one with the initiative. The man with the callsign “Snow Leopard” or “Bars”, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, and his command are growing stronger everyday, even as Russia’s own hold in Ukraine becomes more and more tenuous.
For UKRAINE “even if full control is not yet achieved” is very much a transitive notion … a process of changing from one state or condition to another. Because for the much imposed upon people of Ukraine, especially their sons and daughters on the front lines, it is a question of when not if. Neither last night’s unprecedented massive and deadly Russian ballistic missile(Oreshniks, Kinzhals and Zircons ?) attacks all over Ukraine nor any other such murderous Russian behavior will dissuade them from that of which they are fully persuaded:
Ukrainian SOF Drones Hit Arsenals and Logistics Hubs on russia’s Crimea Corridor (Video)
“UAV unit commander Ihor Lutsenko expressed confidence that “the entire territory of Ukraine not under our control will sooner or later become a kill zone for the Russians. This is the logic of technical progress. Donetsk and Luhansk should soon be surrounded — not by our infantry and tanks, but by our winged robots.”
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