China and Turkey Covet Russia's Borderlands

For all their expressions of fraternal support, neither the Chinese nor the Russians trust each other. The Russians realize this relationship is transactional and the Chinese believe that keeping Russia in the war will ultimately weaken them, strengthen the Chinese and provide opportunities for eventual further expansion at Russia's expense.

The Turks, meanwhile, are standing by, waiting to exploit Russia's eventual degradation. This is the reality of living in that neighborhood. JL

Raj K reports in Medium:

Russia is very big and diverse, with different economic, cultural, and political needs in various areas. If central control weakens, some regions might try to build stronger ties with outside powers, tilting towards neighbors like China basic on economic gains. Russia’s eastern and Siberian areas have huge natural resources, very valuable in the world economy. In the case of Turkey, the Caucasus region borders it. During the Chechen war, Turkey openly supported Chechnya’s independence. Taking advantage of a weak Russia, Turkey would still try to bring Chechnya and neighboring areas under its influence.

In the last 100 years, Russia has experienced several total social collapses. The fall of the Russian Empire and the breakup of the Soviet Union are examples that show how fragile Russia’s structure is.

Recently, during his ongoing war against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has taken several steps that clearly show he is deeply terrified of a complete collapse of Russian society.

Putin recently imposed unprecedented communication restrictions across Russia. These measures are not only bothering ordinary citizens but are also badly affecting the fighting capability of the Russian army.

Due to the communication shutdown within the army, coordination between units has broken down. As a result, for the first time in a long while, Russia is losing territory in many areas.

Putin currently faces two risks: first, dissatisfaction within the army, and second, a power struggle among the influential classes of the government. Both of these are major challenges for Putin.

Regarding the first threat, when a war lasts a long time, losses increase, and resources are strained, which can lead to dissatisfaction between soldiers and military leadership.

The example of Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march toward Moscow in 2023 was cited, which some see as a warning to the power system.

That event showed that differences within the military structure can sometimes take the form of a political challenge.

The second potential threat is believed to be linked to the influential economic and political class, often called “oligarchs.”

In countries like Russia, big industrialists and people with economic power also have significant political influence.

Some analysts believe that if their interests are affected by the war or economic pressure, tension can arise within the government.

Lessons from History

First of all, the Russian Empire collapsed in 1917. After that, a long and bloody civil war took place, at the end of which the Soviet Union was formed.

That is, the result of that collapse was not total disintegration but the emergence of a new and even more centralized state system.

Then in 1991, the Soviet Union broke up. At that time, 15 federal republics became independent countries. This was a historic geopolitical change.

But what is Russia today is not the entire structure of the Soviet Union, but its successor state. Its official name is the Russian Federation, which shows it is a union of various “federal subjects” — including oblasts, krays, republics, etc.

In the 1990s, Chechnya declared independence, and two wars were fought. Those conflicts were a big challenge to Russia’s territorial integrity and were very violent. But the result was that Moscow re-established control over the region.

History shows that Russia has endured crises — 1917, 1991 — but each time it has reorganized in some new form.

Therefore, the word “collapse” should be understood carefully. Sometimes it is total disintegration, sometimes structural reorganization, and sometimes just a rebalancing of power.

Internal Pressures and Rising Risks

Russia is a vast multi-ethnic union with many ethnic republics and regions included. People living there often put their local or ethnic identity first — like Chechen, Tatar, Bashkir, etc. — and Russian identity second.

Due to the war, the state’s focus and resources are mainly on the military front. This has put pressure on internal governance, law and order, and local control.

For instance, a higher salary and opportunities that exist in the military have encouraged many young people to join the military instead of the police or another type of government service; this will reduce the ability of local governments to function at a high level in remote locations.

In the future, it is possible that powerful, influential individuals in certain regions could create private groups to protect themselves and their influence.

If they are larger than what the Russian government can control, then there is a potential for the growth of a regional political base of influence by the groups, which could lead to a call for greater regional autonomy as well as potential calls for eventual separation from Russia.

However, while Putin has taken steps to move toward a centralized form of federalism in his time in office, primarily through reducing the freedoms of the various regions and returning authority to the central government of Moscow.

Even so, if the center weakens for some reason or Putin leaves power, some Russian regions and republics could demand more autonomy or separate identity again.

Russia is very big and diverse, with different economic, cultural, and political needs in various areas.

The Role of External Powers

In that case, some regions might try to build stronger ties with outside powers. Russia’s eastern and Siberian areas have huge natural resources, very valuable in the world economy.

So if central control weakens, some areas could tilt toward neighbors like China based on economic gains.

If we look at the eastern part of Siberia, it once belonged to China and is full of resources. If nuclear weapons appear unsafe there, China could enter using “security” as an excuse. Remember how the US used the excuse of WMDs in Iraq? China could use the exact same tactic.

Meanwhile, the case of Turkey is different. The Caucasus region borders it. During the Chechen war, Turkey openly supported Chechnya’s independence.

Taking advantage of a weak Russia, Turkey would still try to bring Chechnya and neighboring areas under its influence.

This means that, along with Russia’s internal breakup, foreign countries will also become active. If Russia breaks, China in the east and Turkey in the west will take full advantage of this opportunity.

The Nuclear Fear

A major concern about a possible break-up of Russia concerns the nuclear weapons that Russia has the most of worldwide. Russian nuclear weapons are not all located in one area; they are located at various regional military bases.

When people think of Russia being broken up into numerous smaller political areas, it creates a worry about whether an area commander or local military commander would have the authority to release nuclear weapons.

This fear is natural, but in practice, nuclear weapons are not used just because they “exist.” The use of nuclear weapons requires very complex command-and-control systems, launch codes, technical structures, and a military chain of command.

Modern nuclear systems are designed so that it is almost impossible or extremely difficult to use them without a central order.

When the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, nuclear weapons and related materials were present in the territories of different new countries, like Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus.

At that time, too, there was a fear that nuclear weapons could go out of control. But eventually, through international agreements and security programs, these weapons were brought back under Russia’s control.

Conclusion

It is often claimed that the Ukraine war will never be able to break Russia. But, if we turn the pages of history, the truth seems different.

The breakup of Russia is nothing new; the breakup of the Soviet Union and the Chechnya war are links in this long process.

Today, the Ukraine war has broken the back of Russia’s police system, hollowed out the economy, and forcibly thrown the youth into the furnace of war. Because of this, heavy anger is growing in the small republics there.

Vladimir Putin understands these weaknesses very well. That is why he is putting a watch on the media, taking away the remaining freedom of the states, and silencing every opposing voice.

But history is witness — whenever the center’s grip loosens, the subordinate states find their own separate way.

If Russia breaks apart once again, the map of the world will change completely. We will see a smaller Russia, a super-powerful China, a more active Turkey, and many new independent countries.

This is not just talk; it is based on the “Russia after Russia” events that have already happened in history. What will happen next, only time will tell.

But one thing is certain — the Ukraine war has changed Russia forever; it will never be the same as before.