Spetznaz Block Suggests Putin Prefers Lyman Pocket Death Fight To Retreat

Units of Russia's 144th Motor Rifle Division trapped in the Lyman salient are in growing danger of being encircled by Ukrainian forces. There is one bridge which would allow either reinforcements in or escape out. But the Kremlin evidently sees there is no point in sending any more of its depleted army into the pocket - and a Spetsnaz blocking company is not letting anyone out.

This suggests that Putin prefers to have the trapped soldiers continue fighting to the death, rather than suffer the humiliation of a major retreat. Ukraine appears happy to oblige. JL

Shankar Narayan reports in Medium:

Ukraine  is now methodically eating away at the Lyman salient, which Putin’s forces took more than a year to build. A number of  Russian units are caught in the Ukrainian sweep. A significant share belongs to the 144th Motor Rifle Division. The Terny crossing is the only vehicle exit across the Zherebets River. There is one usable bridge, and the 29th Spetsnaz Company is positioned at its eastern exit. Ukraine could have destroyed the bridge but has not. That suggests Ukraine wants to preserve it. Why is Russian spetsnaz company guarding the exit when no reinforcements are crossing the bridge in the other direction?  The depleted regiments inside remain where they are. Stalin would understand this immediately. There has been no reinforcement of this pocket. If Russian commanders have refused to reinforce this sector even as Ukrainian forces move deeper into it, Moscow has given up on holding the salient. It looks as though Putin has abandoned the 144th Motor Rifle Division.

The precise size of the Ukrainian-held territory was always fluid, but it remained around the 700-square-kilometre mark for a very long time. Do you also remember the breathtaking American media coverage when Ukraine began withdrawing from Kursk? Donald Trump — Putin’s phone-a-friend — milked that withdrawal for everything it was worth. He told the world that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers were trapped, that he would ask his friend to show them mercy, and that perhaps Putin would allow them to live if only Trump personally intervened.

Putin has repaid that friendship by destroying plenty of American-owned facilities in Ukraine.

Whatever.

Ukraine is now methodically eating away at the Lyman salient, which Putin’s ground forces took more than a year to build. This was the northern arm of the pincer Russia was constructing to compress Ukrainian positions around the three fortress-belt cities.

The Lyman salient covers close to 300 square kilometres, and, as of writing, the following Russian formations appear to be caught in the Ukrainian sweep: the 1428th Motor Rifle Regiment, 1st Motor Rifle Regiment, 488th Motor Rifle Regiment, 254th Motor Rifle Regiment, 29th Spetsnaz Company, 856th Artillery Regiment, 148th Reconnaissance Battalion, 59th Tank Regiment, 283rd Motor Rifle Regiment, 1220th Motor Rifle Regiment, 237th Tank Regiment and 252nd Motor Rifle Regiment.

A significant share of this force consists of subunits belonging to the 144th Motor Rifle Division.

Press enter or click to view image in full size

For the Russian force inside the Shandryholove–Zelena Dolyna pocket, the Terny crossing appears to be the only direct, mapped vehicle exit across the Zherebets River. There is one usable bridge, and the 29th Spetsnaz Company is positioned at its eastern exit. Ukraine could have destroyed the bridge but has not. That strongly suggests Ukraine wants to preserve an avenue through which the Russians can abandon the pocket rather than forcing them to fight to the last man.

But then we arrive at the obvious question: why is an elite Russian spetsnaz company guarding the exit when no reinforcements are crossing the bridge in the other direction? What exactly is it protecting the bridge from? Nothing is coming in. The depleted regiments inside remain where they are. Yet one of the more reliable formations available to the Russian command is sitting on the safe bank, precisely where every soldier attempting to leave the pocket would emerge.

Stalin would understand the arrangement immediately.

It increasingly looks as though Putin has abandoned much of the 144th Motor Rifle Division to the gods beneath the ground. Perhaps his phone-a-friend should now call Zelenskyy, ask for mercy for the Russian troops and bring back those magnificent Kursk diplomacy skills. Trump posed as humanitarian when Putin stood to benefit from the spectacle. Here is his opportunity to prove that his concern extends to the soldiers of his friend.

We have been watching this pocket closely over the past several days, and so far there has been no visible movement of reinforcements into it. Ukraine could have destroyed the bridge and then slammed the pocket shut from both directions. It has not done that either. Ukrainian forces may still be following their slow-corrosion model, using limited counterattacks to steadily remove Russian positions. Or they may have chosen a deliberate clearance operation that leaves the Russians an opportunity to withdraw.

We do not yet know which approach they are taking.

But one conclusion is becoming harder to avoid. If Russian commanders have refused to reinforce this sector even as Ukrainian forces move deeper into it — particularly when the formations inside have only one proper exit — the odds are rising that Moscow has already given up on holding the salient. It may simply expect the 144th Motor Rifle Division and the other units inside to keep fighting for as long as they can. But this increasingly looks like a dead end.

We will be following this pocket closely. It covers nearly 300 square kilometres, although a significant part of that territory has already returned to Ukrainian control. Its importance, however, is not merely its size.

The collapse of this salient would dismantle Russia’s northern approach for closing the gap to the fortress belt — an approach Putin’s ground forces took more than a year to construct. That would be a major battlefield setback for Russia and a material loss of leverage if and when negotiations finally begin.