The Russian Army Is Failing Badly This Summer - And That Will Not Change

The adjectives being used to describe Russian military efforts in Ukraine this summer do not inspire hope: insufficient, extremely unlikely, unrealistic and, repeatedly, failure, failed, failing.

The harsh reality is that Russia has no answers to Ukrainian strategy and tactics. Its attacks on civilian targets have demonstrated no structural impact on Ukrainian war making capabilities or morale and Russian leadership is increasingly seen as ineffective and out of touch. Putin reportedly had a widely publicized call with the commander of Russian airborne forces to 'demonstrate' that he is in control after being mocked for announcing the capture of several cities which turned out to still be in Ukrainian hands. The question is not if, but how and when he will be forced to seek some sort of denoument. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Russian military is still failing badly this summer—and that will not change. On the battlefield, the basics favor the Ukrainian strategy of causing massive Russian casualties while saving their own lives. And the data supports this. The Russian summer offensive (it is already into August—so much of the summer is gone) shows Russian advances are miniscule, far below the small advances of 2025, and Russian casualties are now more than 40,000 a month. So the Russian army is struggling, suffering massive losses and its logistic situation is getting worse.

Russia Saves Money By Declaring Missing Soldiers AWOL Rather Than Dead

For Russian soldiers serving in Ukraine - and their families at home - being promised bonuses and death benefits turns out to be much easier than collecting them. 

Given the scale of Russian casualties, the Kremlin prefers to list missing soldiers as AWOL (absent without leave) rather than dead or captured, because doing so saves the economically strapped Russian government as much as 13 million rubles per soldier. JL

RFE/RL reports:

High wages and other payments, such as death benefits for relatives, have been a major incentive for Russian men to sign contracts to fight in Ukraine. But the Russian military has been struggling to maintain manpower  as the war drags on and Moscow’s forces suffer heavy losses while gaining ground at a glacial pace. In 95% of the cases in which a serviceman has disappeared, evidence indicates the soldier may have been badly wounded, captured by Ukrainian forces, or killed. (But) the Russian state saves up to 13 million rubles ($160,000) for each soldier who is falsely reported as having gone AWOL. It also allows commanders to avoid taking steps to declare soldier missing in action: gathering documents, questioning fellow servicemen, alerting relatives, etc.

Fortress Belt Capture By Russians This Year Deemed "Extremely Unrealistic"

Despite Putin's prioritizing the capture of Ukraine's Fortress Belt by the end of 2026, objective analysts believe that goal is 'extremely unrealistic' due to the Russian military's 'insufficient rate of advance' so far this year.

That miniscule advance rate has been imposed by strong Ukrainian defense, which has caused massive casualties and logistical breakdowns that are exacerbated by Russia's own ongoing recruitment and supply difficulties. JL

The New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Russian forces ability to capture the entire Donbas by the end of the year remains “extremely unrealistic.” Russia’s monthly rate of advance was higher in July than in June but remained insufficient to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast by Putin’s new deadline of Dec. 31, 2026 despite the deployment of 'elite' airborne and naval infantry units. It as extremely unlikely that Russian forces would capture the Donbas fortress belt - comprising Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk - in the near future, if they are capable of doing so at all.

Putin's Latest Donbas Deadline Again Thwarted By Ukrainian Forces

It is a famous adage of business that deadlines are made to be broken. Whoever first pointed that out probably was not thinking of the Russian Army, but, boy, have they embraced it. Starting with the 'three day' invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there does not seem to have been a deadline set by the Kremlin that its army has not found a way to miss. 

The latest in this panoply of failure is Putin's insistence that the Donbas be captured in its entirety by the end of 2026. Most experts are now predicting that due to Ukraine's defense, its extensive fortifications, the Russians' 'very heavy losses every day" and the abysmally slow pace of what passes for Russian advances this year - to the extent there have been advances at all - it is 'extremely unlikely' that the latest goal will be achieved either. JL

Raj K reports in Medium:

Every deadline Putin sets for the fall of Donbas comes and goes. Now there is talk of a new deadline, according to which the goal is to establish full Russian control over the entire Donbas region by the end of 2026. Looking at the current situation on the battlefield, achieving this goal within the set time will be extremely difficult. Russia is suffering very heavy military losses every day and the fighting ability of many units is continuously decreasing. The reason is not only Ukrainian resistance, but the pace of the war, military capabilities, logistics, availability of weapons, and the constantly rising human and economic costs. Russian forces only managed to push a few soldiers into the outskirts of Kostianynivka, creating only gray zones. The four large cities standing in Russia’s path are much bigger than Pokrovsk, more dangerous, and their fortifications are far stronger. All four “Fortress Belt” cities still stand under Ukrainian control.

AI Data Centers Are Losing the Fight: Even Texas "Pauses" Approvals Until Audited

Data centers have unwittingly encapsulated all that is wrong with American society and politics: wealth concentration, the decline of affordability, energy costs, inability to buy homes, inflation, obnoxious billionaires, environmental degradation - and will no doubt eventually be blamed for whoever doesn't win the World Series... 

The serious problem for big tech and investors is that AI valuations and growth projections were premised on a set of already questionable assumptions which had, at their core, the necessity of data and compute scale being available to support AI's growth. Not only is that increasingly less likely, but every politician in America - including the governor of Texas - is now running against, not for data centers. If you're a big money industry and you've lost Texas, well, you'd better lawyer up. JL

Aaron Mak and Jessie report in Politico, Paul Cobler reports in the Texas Tribune:

Data centers are on the losing end of a populist backlash. Fears the server-packed data hubs will drive up electricity prices, deplete water supplies and gobble farmland have prompted people across the country to pack meetings of zoning boards and county commissions to oppose the projects, while leaders in both parties are calling for moratoriums. Amid growing public backlash to the rapid buildout of data centers across Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott announced a moratorium on the approval of data centers until regulators can audit proposed data centers seeking connection to the state’s electric grid. Messaging about the benefits of the facilities is failing to resonate with the public. A recent poll found just 16% of people agreed data centers “benefit the area they are built in and the country as a whole,” while 60% said they come at the expense of the local area and country or provide no benefits at all.

Ukraine Expands Kupiansk Kill Zone To 20 Km As Russians Achieve "Zero Goals'

It's been a tough summer for Russian troops in the Kupiansk area (pictured right).

Ukrainian drone operators have expanded the Kupiansk front kill zone to 20 kilometers as the brigades defending that sector demonstrate that Russian forces have achieved none of their objectives for the summer offensive there. JL

Elza Diachenko reports in Gwara Media:

Ukrainian drone operators expanded the kill zone to 20 kilometers (12 miles) deep into the Russian-occupied territories on Kupiansk axis in Kharkiv oblast. The kill zone previously extended 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from the zero line, but it can reach 25 kilometers (15.5 miles). Expanding the kill zone is the main priority as Russian troops achieved zero objectives in their summer campaign on the Kupiansk axis. Ukrainian brigades (including the 4th Heavy Mechanized and 77th Airmobile) have actively targeted Russian supply lines, destroying logistics vehicles, ground drones, and equipment storages. 

16,000 Foreign Volunteers Fight For Ukraine. 40% Are South American

There are currently about 16,000 foreign volunteers serving in the Ukrainian military. Of those, almost 40% come from Latin America, and a significant percentage of the Latin Americans come from Colombia.

The reason for that is that when Colombia ended its civil war, it left thousands of trained fighters without gainful employment. Many of them have been attracted to the fighting in Ukraine by the salaries, which are better than those they can get in their own country and by the opportunity to use the skills they used in the military (and, to some extend, in insurgent forces) in Colombia. JL

Vladyslav Khomenko reports in Militarnyi, Gulliver Cragg and Catalina Gomez report in France24:

Around 16,000 foreign volunteers are currently serving in the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The volunteers come from 72 countries, with nearly 40% of them originating from Latin American nations. Colombians, in particular, are attracted by the Ukrainian military's high salaries. But also, in many cases, by a sense of adventure and quest for purpose in life. Colombia's 2016 peace settlement has left many soldiers there feeling underused as well as underpaid. Many have also gone to fight in other wars – in Yemen or Sudan, for example – but Ukraine is the first place where they are recruited officially into the host country's armed forces