Continuing To Defy Trump, Ukraine Strikes More Russian Oil Refineries

In continued defiance of Trump's requests that Ukraine stop attacking Russian refineries, Ukrainian drones attacked one of the Kremlin's largest refineries at Yaroslavl. 

Given the electoral beating Trump suffered yesterday, expect Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries to escalate. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

A Ukrainian drone attack struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries overnight on Nov. 3, damaging infrastructure, injuring two employees and sparking multiple fires. At least five large fires were visible across the facility. The latest attack comes as Ukraine has resumed its campaign against Russian oil infrastructure following a nearly two-week lull in reported strikes on the country’s refineries. The pause followed mounting pressure from US President Donald Trump, who urged President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop targeting Russian oil refineries and diesel production facilities.

AI and Its Billionaires Were On the Midterm Ballot. And They Lost

Like Donald Trump, with whom it has become inextricably allied, AI was on the ballot yesterday even though its name never actually appeared. 

The arrogant disregard for the impact of data centers on electricity and water costs - to say nothing of their size and noise - as well as the billions and trillions being bandied about from which Americans well knew they would never financially benefit and might well suffer, all contributed to the historic Democratic electoral sweep. And from Elon Musk's flaunting of his wealth, to Jeff Bezos wedding to Sam Altman's and Mark Zucckerberg's smug disregard for public concerns, the faces of AI were as much an issue as the technology itself. While their money cannot be gainsaid, expect some sort of regulatory imposition to follow. JL

Calder McHugh and colleagues report in Politico:

Elon Musk spent a half-billion dollars, only to see his home of Texas go blue. Allies like Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz and their Silicon Valley firm — as well as OpenAI’s Greg Brockman — plowed tens of millions of dollars into super PACs that suffered major upsets. Crypto money was crushed in Ohio, Democrats who ran against Big Tech claimed decisive victories Tuesday. Democrats who won Senate races in South Carolina and Ohio cast their opponents as the faces of a data center build-out and frequently name-checked “Big Tech” as a primary American villain. Democrat gubernatorial winners — Amy Acton in Ohio, Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, David Crowley in Wisconsin, Troy Jackson in Maine and Jocelyn Benson in Michigan — all supported a data center moratorium. “The American people rejected the alliance of Big AI and Big Government. Voters rejected Republicans in part because they were bought and paid for by AI billionaires,” 

Ukraine's Smarter War Strategy Is Beating Russia's Mass

It doesn't always work this way, but smart is consistently beating big as Ukraine's data driven tactics and strategy are driving Russian forces back - for two months in a row now - while inflicting ever higher casualties. JL

Ryder Blackthorn reports in Frontline Signal:

Ukraine is not only asking, “Can we shoot down this drone?” It’s asking, “Can we make the next drone attack harder to launch?” That’s the smarter question. This is the part that makes the story bigger than another strike roundup. Ukraine is not only burning parts of Russia’s war machine. It’s building its own. Hit enough pieces of the chain, and Russia has to spend more time protecting, repairing, rerouting, replacing, and explaining. Russia is gambling on mass, hoping that enough bodies will finally tip the scales. Ukraine is betting on systems — the kind that outlast any single mobilization wave, that keep learning, adapting, and producing results long after the last conscript is dragged to the front.

Four New Russian Salients Picked Off By Ukraine As Vivaldi Tactics Spread

Applying the model that worked so well during Operation Vivaldi, Ukrainian forces have now cut off four additional Russian salients  on the Donbas front, isolating the Russian units caught in those cauldrons while further disrupting Russia's plans, such as they remain. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

By virtue of Operation Vivaldi and the recently launched Operation Veles(just north of Lyman in the Kupiansk area of Kharkiv oblast) Ukraine has disrupted and largely eliminated several major Russian salients threatening the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. But more such salients remain. The possibility of now encircling and cutting off multiple different sized Russian garrisons in the area is quite real. Russian forces are still being surprised by seeing Ukrainian units, both Unmanned Ground Assault robots and Special Forces suddenly appear in what they had previously thought to be their safe rear. Disconnected Russian army units, now largely cut off from their logistical tail, with their backs to the Zherebets and Siverskyi Donet rivers even as Ukrainian troops threaten their rear and escape routes, make for salients that are prone to collapse 

$80 Billion Hedge Fund Warns of AI FOGO: "Fear Of Getting Oblieterated

"Fear of getting obliterated" is a phrase that concentrates the mind. And that is the message coming from Elliott Investment Management, a large US hedge fund.

They cite all the AI warning signs that have been floated for the past year: from unrealizable projections, to slower than expected corporate uptake to circular investing. And today's US midterm elections may even add a popular underscore to the fundamental financial concerns. JL

Peter Rudegeair reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Elliott Investment Management compared the current state of the markets, laden with debt-fueled risk-taking and bubbling with hype over new technologies, to the Roaring ‘20s that preceded the Great Depression. “At present, virtually every alarm bell warning of a substantial bear market ahead is ringing,” the $80 billion hedge-fund firm wrote in an investor letter. Its October message highlighted risks building in U.S. budget deficits, persistent inflation, private-credit portfolios and artificial-intelligence hype. And it warned about market distortions caused by factors it said were more akin to gambling than investing.  Regarding AI, Elliott warned about circular investments between AI model companies and makers of AI infrastructure, debt-financed capital spending and a burgeoning anti-AI movement. The market impact from challenges to the pricing of AI products or diminished expectations about the AI build-out “could be historic.” 

Russia Has Lost "Theater-Wide Initiative, Offensive Capability" Across the Frontline

In an assessment that characterizes the Russian war effort as failing across the frontline, analysts took special pains to point out that the continuing Russian effort towards Dobropillia had become "strategically purposeless" because of the Kremlin's inability to generate operational breakthroughs despite significant efforts to do so. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Russian forces have lost the theater-wide initiative and offensive operational capability across significant sectors of the frontline in Ukraine. Russian forces lost more territory than they managed to seize for the second consecutive month. "Casualty rates and territorial contractions accurately reflect the ground reality, where Russian forces have forfeited the operational initiative and offensive momentum across a substantial portion of the frontline." Russian formations now lack the manpower reserves necessary to execute broad offensive maneuvers. The offensive toward Dobropillya has failed to generate breakthroughs. Analysts characterized the potential capture of the town as strategically purposeless

How the Rebuilt 125th Mech Brigade Helped Lead Operation Vivaldi

Once scorned as poorly led and motivated, with a reputation for desertions and abandoned posts, new leaders at the 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade, rebuilt the unit, convinced 1.500 AWOL soldiers to return and became one of the salient elements in the Vivaldi offensive. 

A key focus of this effort was demonstrating to skeptical troops that new leadership meant better tactics, equipment - and performance. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

One reason for Operation Vivaldi's success was that the 3rd Army Corps managed to nearly fill out at least one of its five line brigades. The 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade's main units—three infantry and tank battalions, which make up half the overall brigade—have filled between 95% and 100% of their allotted billets. The unit not only has nearly all of its allotted infantry, it also has an abundance of heavy equipment including M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Leopard tanks.1,500 troops who had gone absent without leave returned and rejoined. That helped drive a 430% increase in unit manning,