Ancillary Benefits: The Pill Has Helped Close the Gender Wage Gap

The National Bureau of Economic Research is run by and for the nation's leading economists. It has a reputation for creative, thoughtful and evidence-based non-ideological scholarship. The work it sponsors and reviews is generally considered among the finest in the world.

Which is among the reasons why the release of a recent working paper under the Bureau's imprimatur providing evidence that womens' economic circumstances have improved since the release of oral contraception - The Pill - is significant.

The data suggest that at least 10% of the gender wage gap reduction over the past 35 or so years can be attributed to use of The Pill. The implication is that womens' or, more broadly, families' ability to influence the timing or actuality of pregnancy has provided improvements in income.

As various societies - including the US - continue to debate approaches to health care policy, economic benefits are frequently ignored in favor of cultural or ideological arguments. But this research adds to a growing body of evidence that these matters are issues not just of belief, but of competitiveness. JL

Kate Sheppard reports in Mother Jones:

Not only is birth control helping women not get preggers, it's also making women richer. Widespread availability of oral contraception—a.k.a. "The Pill"—has played a major role in closing the gender wage gap since the 1980s, according to a new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Is Apple a Bubble?

In 1929, eminent business leader Bernard Baruch told his colleagues that since every shoeshine boy he met was offering him stock tips it was probably time to exit the market.

Just over 50% of the homes in the US have at least one Apple product. Business publications are predicting its stock price will triple above its already historic heights. And lots of people have made fools of themselves predicting the eminent demise of tech superstars.

The reality is that Apple's design and functionality continues to anticipate the growing demand for interoperability which underpins the basic human desire for convenience.

But as IBM, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, eBay and a host of others have learned, there are natural economic limits. These are driven in part by the Law of Big Numbers: the larger a company gets, the harder it is to deliver growth because the effort required to make an impact becomes too daunting. We are already seeing that the premium Apple is able to charge for its products is greater than the premium it receives for its stock. Successful investors are usually percentage players; they understand the power of reversion to the mean (whatever goes up...). Apple may continue to dominate its field. It may reign as the most valuable company in the US as defined by market value. But nothing is forever. JL

Greg Satell comments in Digital Tonto:

In 1999, just after the Dow broke 10,000, the book 'Dow 36,000' predicted it would more than triple in just a few years. That was two crashes ago and nearly 15 years later the Dow is barely 13,000.

Those foolish days would seem long gone, but just last week Forbes published an article which predicted that Apple shares will hit $1,650 by the end of 2015. Just like Webvan and flipping houses, people are talking about Apple like it can only go up.

Knockoff Knockdown: Villagers Fight Over Patents in Rural China

Patent fever.

China has been known globally as the place where intellectual property is most likely to be ignored rather than protected.

But recent developments suggest that the ownership of IP is becoming something of a Chinese national mania, though it tends to manifest itself in ways that American or European legal experts would find, ummm, creative.

While still not particularly respectful of other peoples' IP, now that they are creating their own, the country is determined to protect it, particularly from the depredations of their own countrymen.

China is determined to move from being a 'brawn' economy to a 'brain' society, driven by home-grown innovation. The country that measures almost everything, has calculated what it will take to achieve this goal. Among other esoteric data, it is keeping score on the number of Silicon Valley start-ups and IPOs founded by Chinese versus Indian entrepreneurs (the Indians are currently ahead, to the annoyance of authorities in Beijing).

While globally competitive Chinese corporations are among the largest in filing patent applications, their rural brethren are following a similar path. The irony is that they are copying foreign designs - Ikea appears to be a favorite - and patenting those knock-offs. The larger issue is that as the value of patents and other forms of intellectual property become evident across all segments of Chinese society, the effect could be as transformative as any ideological tract. JL

Patti Waldmeir reports in the Financial Times:

Xu Song recently became the proud owner of 799 Chinese furniture patents. The problem is, he admits that he did not invent the furniture: his neighbours made it first – and they just copied it from Ikea anyway.

Designed by Ikea, copied by the neighbours, patented by Mr Xu: this may not be the kind of creative progression Beijing has in mind, when Chinese leaders talk about building an economy based on innovation. But in a strange kind of way, the fact that Mr Xu and his neighbours – former migrant workers and pig farmers in a rural Chinese village – are fighting over patents is a sign of the growing sophistication of the Chinese economy, legal experts say.

How the Rich Spend Their Money: Myth and Materiality

Far more wealthy people shop at Walmart and Home Depot than at Tiffany's or Louis Vuitton.

Stereotypes about the rich are as misleading as those about any other demographic group. But due to their purchasing power, the impact of these misperceptions can result in misguided strategic business decisions and poor public policy design.

Part of the issue is that the wealthy in Europe and the US and Asia have vastly different cultural affinities and backgrounds. There is not a monolithic global profile - though it is possible that one could emerge as the world's economy becomes ever more inextricably intertwined. In the interim, developing informed, comparable and comprehensive data about purchasing habits and intentions will go a long way toward avoiding poorly informed decisions based on emotion, bias and preconception. JL

Richard Morais reports in Barron's:

So many myths abound about the rich and super rich. Some folk have the impression the well-heeled only shop at Saks Fifth Avenue and Ralph Lauren boutiques. Not so. The rich can be incredibly parsimonious one moment and then profligate the next. It’s hard to predict.

There are 2.7 million very wealthy households in America earning more than $250,000 a year. Their annual household income as a group comes in at around $1.5 trillion, but their collective household net worth is closer to $23.3 trillion. So where these folk go the economy often goes

Animatronic Attraction: Company Mascots Interacting with Fans on Twitter and Facebook

So much for rational expectations.

Corporations have discovered that trying to connect with customers on social media may work best when personalities are employed. Even when those 'personalities' are talking trees, cockney-accented geckos or packaged meat products.

We are not quite sure what this says about the state of consumers' inner lives, imaginations or educational attainments, but as so often happens in business marketing, whatever works. JL

Suzanne Vranica reports in the Wall Street Journal:

A new marketing campaign for StubHub, the ticket-resale website, stars a 25-foot-high animatronic talking tree with tickets as leaves. In commercials, the tree, known as the "Ticket Oak," lives in a suburban backyard and doles out tickets to neighbors.

It is quite a departure from StubHub's last ad campaign, which showed people dreaming about getting a ticket to a concert or a big game. But with the Ticket Oak character, StubHub hopes to make a splash on Facebook and other media. StubHub, a unit of eBay Inc. is just one of a number of marketers that have turned to characters—both live action and animated—to help sell their products in the past year.

Bag the Mortgage: Americans Prioritize Car Payments Over Everything Else

There was a time when Americans' greatest source of wealth and pride was their home. But there was also a time when dinosaurs roamed the earth.

The mortgage debacle of the past four years has sucked much of the value out of homes and exposed the tenuous relationship 'owning' a mortgaged home has had with personal net worth. Stubborn unwillingness to negotiate managable payouts and ruthless foreclosure proceedings leading to historic levels of repossession have also soured people on the value of making nice with banks. Respect is as respect does.

But the American love affair with the automobile is another matter. Recent data show that Americans will make extreme efforts to stay current on their car loans. One reason is that they know it will be hard to get another one. The other - and most pressing - is that so many people need their car to get to work. Growing trends in urbanization and the decline in younger generations' car purchase patterns suggest that consumers are waking up to the mixed blessing of auto dependency; when added to insurance and gas costs, cars have become much more expensive by historical norms, just as national household incomes have declined.

For the time being, cars are first among equals. Consumers know they can always get another credit card and homes? Well, let the bank have the keys, renting is on the rise. JL

The Associated Press reports via Business Insider:

The recession and its hangover may have turned bill-paying habits upside down. Cash-strapped Americans are paying off their car loans before they pay credit card bills and make mortgage payments, a study finds.

It used to be that Americans would pay their home loans first, then their credit card and car loans. After all, homes have been the most valuable possession for most people for decades, and nobody wanted to jeopardize that. But TransUnion, a credit information company, studied the payment patterns of 4 million Americans with at least one car loan, one credit card and a mortgage and found a clear priority for staying current on the car loan

Can Better Data End Global Poverty?

Theory without data can too often be conjecture. Data without theory provides measurement but not necessarily knowledge or wisdom.

Combining data with experience in a evidence-based theoretical context may provide the answer to a lifetime of vexing questions about how best to end the global scourge of poverty.

As resources become more constrained due to economic challenges brought on by shifting pressures, new technologies and global competition, identifying more effective solutions sooner has become a priority. Randomized controlled trials, or RCTs have become one means of improving the success rate for those seeking answers. But as in every transfer of wealth and information, there are disagreements about efficacy and fairness. Suffice it to say that there will probably never be a universally acknowledged fix. But knowing that alternatives are being rigorously evaluated may be an improvement sufficient to keep the process moving towards achieving such an historically elusive goal. JL

Kentaro Toyama reports in The Atlantic:

Do free bed nets in some countries lead to more cases of malaria? Could anti-parasite pills raise school attendance in one country and have no effect in another? How cheap does preventative care have to be for low-income families to see the doctor?

There might not be a perfect way to answer these thorny questions on a country-by-country basis. But some leading scientists think the most rigorous answer comes from what they call "randomized controlled trials."

Weather Watch: Did a Warm Winter Jumpstart Job Creation?

In every election year political candidates like to argue about who is responsible for creating or destroying jobs.

And usually, they like to take credit for the positive while blaming their opponents for the negative. But this year, a new candidate may be muscling all of them out of the race: Mother Nature.

Recent data suggest that this year's unusually warm winter in much of the US has contributed a significant number of new jobs to the economy. Whether the trend is sustainable - literally and figuratively - remains to be seen. The downside is that what the weather delivers, it can later take away. If spring rains, summer drought or autumnal hurricanes wreak too much havoc, job creation may slow or even reverse. But the irony, if the trend holds, is that those who are ideologically opposed to the very notion of climate change may find that political expediency forces them to embrace it. JL

Matthew Yglesias reports in Slate:

Everyone likes a mild winter, but perhaps no one likes it more than President Obama. A recent Macro Musings newsletter from the respected forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers suggested that warm weather in December, January, and February added 72,000 extra jobs to the U.S. economy.

This report helps explain one of Recovery Winter’s minor puzzles: Why did the economy add an unusually high level of jobs relative to very modest growth in GDP? But it also leaves us with a question: If unseasonable weather boosted winter job growth, would a return to normal this spring undo those gains? Macroeconomic Advisors thinks it will, but there’s reason to believe they’re wrong.

All In: Nike Does Digital

Nike is not known for half measures.

Going 'all in' is part of its DNA.

So when the questions about the efficacy of digital advances became too compelling to ignore any longer, the company proceeded on several parallel paths. And in doing so may be revolutionizing the corporate play book for marketing and business partnerships.

Nike is known for both its products and its marketing so it is logical that it is building its digital initiatives around those two business pillars. But it is doing so in a fashion that combines, in innovative ways, the singular impact of those factors on its target market - young adults. From partnering with Apple to provide cloud-based digital performance data for its customers, to moving the bulk of its marketing and advertising online and based on social platforms. The result, so far, has deepened and strengthened its relations with customers, led to product improvements and provided knowledge about needs and wants that will help guide the development of the next generation's products.

This holistic approach is both revolutionary and proving effective. And it demonstrates that innovation may thrive most at the edge where business and customers interact. JL

Scott Cendrowski reports in Fortune:

Few outsiders have visited the third floor of the Jerry Rice Building at Nike's headquarters. Even most Nike employees know little about just what the staffers working here, on the north side of the company's 192-acre campus in Beaverton, Ore., actually do.

Once upon a time, the hush-hush plans and special-access security clearance would have been about some cutting-edge sneaker technology: the discovery of a new kind of foam-blown polyurethane, say, or some other breakthrough in cushioning science. But the employees in this lab aren't making shoes or clothes. They're quietly engineering a revolution in marketing.

What Drives Prosperity?

If ever there were a topic on which the conflicting interests of business and government overlap it is the nature of prosperity. It is a fundamental pillar of commercial and political sustainability. And there is disagreement about what drives it.

There is in most cultures a deterministic point of view about this. Luck may play a role, as in the happy accident of geography, biology and other inhuman factors, but the prevailing viewpoint, particularly among western cultures, is that one makes one's own luck.

In the realm of education, there has long been a battle between those who favor the liberal arts as a broadening experience that ultimately provides beneficial world view. But opponents of that approach call it wasteful and favor STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) oriented curricula as offering the rigor necessary for success in a competitive global economy.

These concepts frame the debate between the forces of focus and discipline versus those of serendipity and innovation. The reality is that the world has become more complex, which means that focus is helpful. But that also means we can never anticipate - or know - everything so tolerance of ambiguity and uncertainty is useful. It is unlikely that either side will concede much to the other. But what is clear is that some combination of the two is required for any progress to be made.

In short, it's complicated. JL

Greg Satell comments in Digital Tonto:

“President Obama once said he wants everybody in America to go to college. What a snob!” exclaimed Rick Santorum. The reaction among the chattering classes was, as you would expect, visceral in its disgust.

But should it have been? Is there really something wrong with wanting people who merely seek to work hard, put in an honest day’s work for an honest day’s pay and mind their business to be able to live a decent life?

Put another way, what is the true path to prosperity?

Birth Rate Plummets: Are Young Americans Too Poor to Have Children?

Having to move back in with mom and dad could be the most effective birth control method ever devised.

US population growth is at its lowest level since the Great Depression. The average wage for college-educated men and women has plunged 11 and 8 percent respectively. Unmarried households outnumber married households for the first time in history. The longer term implications for the US economy are potentially severe as there will not be enough young workers to offset those who are growing older and retiring. The US had an advantage over other nations for many years because, being a nation of immigrants, it encouraged immigration. However, a socio-cultural reaction driven by economics (slightly) and ideology (mostly) has driven state governments to introduce harsh anti-immigration statutes that have discouraged what was once a primary source of labor growth.

Whether these trends will revert to previous trajectories if and when the economy revives is a matter of speculation. Analysis of cyclical trends suggests that household formation will rise again, but the delay in getting back to that point will affect both population and economic growth. JL

Bonnie Kavoussi reports in the Huffington Post:

The number of children born in the U.S. has plunged 8 percent since its all-time high in 2007, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. More alarming: population growth is at its slowest growth rate since the Great Depression, according to the U.S. Census.

Raising kids is expensive. The Department of Agriculture estimates that it costs about $13,000 per year to raise a child in a middle-income family.

Bargaining is Back: Internet Shopping Apps Spur Consumer Price Haggling

For most of the past few decades haggling was something Americans and Europeans did in exotic foreign locales (or in auto showrooms...). It was considered undignified by some and it made many people uncomfortable. Not any more.

The decline in household incomes with the concommitant rise in availability of mobile price comparison apps has driven customers to haggle with even high end retailers. The retailers inadvertantly encouraged this mindset with sales and promotions that conditioned consumers to wait for deals they knew would be coming, especially around the Christmas holidays, traditionally the time of firmest prices but more recently, a period of unparalleled bargain shopping opportunity.

Some chains like JCPenney are trying to break the cycle with what they term 'fair and square' pricing which provides consumers with cost information so that they understand the nature of the deal. Walmart has used 'every day low prices' as its mantra for years, instilling in customers the notion that they will not be undersold by competitors. But just as technology disintermediated the middle man, so it is now undermining the retailer by providing information to consumers - as they shop - on the relative values they are seeing.

When middle class households had more income, they could afford to ignore higher mark-ups. Retailers fed the belief that shopping was a form of family entertainment in which those who searched (and not to hard) could find undiscovered gems. But with the pressure of global competition, online commerce, declining living standards and technological enhancement, the shopping game is becoming more like a figurative blood sport. JL

Stephanie Clifford reports in the New York Times:

P. T. Vineburgh has a sense of how much things should cost, and on a recent trip to the Boston jeweler Shreve, Crump & Low, he was not afraid to say so. “I know these things are significantly marked up,” Mr. Vineburgh, 33, said about Chelsea clocks priced at several hundred dollars. “I said, ‘I’m buying three; I’d like 15 or 20 percent off.’ ”

Sold. Pricing has always been a tug of war between retailer and shopper, with the retailer having more muscle. No more. Thanks to the Internet and shopping comparison apps, price-wise shoppers are haggling.

Take What We Can Get Dept: Music Industry Enjoys Least Worst Year in a Decade

Least worst! They'll take it.

After suffering what felt to the industry like plagues of almost Biblical proportions since the advent of illegal downloads, music may be starting to recover.

Revenue fell by only 3 percent in 2011. Hardly cause to break out the Cristal and whistle up the private jet for quick trip to Ibiza, but compared to the past eight years, it is beginning to feel like a bottom has been reached and talk of the upside is not a ticket to the Betty Ford Clinic.

A welter of converging explanations may be responsible. The thrill of 'free' downloads has been supplanted by new technologies that promise better quality, less hassle - the message finally breaking through that this does, in fact, take bread out of artists' mouths. Tougher enforcement, though unpopular, is viewed as not worth the risk, even if acceptance of the moral hazard remains uncertain. Sparking it all is the growth of new musical forms, global markets

They may not be partying like its 1999, but the official mourning period may finally be over. JL

Robert Andrews reports in Paid Content:

The music industry enjoyed its best sales performance for eight years in 2011, as CDs’ collapse decelerated, digital sales continued growing and new services were launched to capitalise on in-roads made in combating piracy.

Global recorded music trade revenue fell by just three percent through the year. “2011 marked the least negative result in global recorded music sales since 2004, when revenues were flat,” the industry’s IFPI umbrella says in its just-released annual Recording Industry In Numbers report

Google, Technology and Core Values: Has Evil Become Relative?

When you set a really high bar, you had best be prepared to clear it.

Ever since they chose 'Don't Be Evil' as the corporate statement of values Google has had to fight charges of hypocrisy and perceptions that it was a slogan, not an operating principle. From relations with China to invasions of privacy to ownership of literary works and individual data, a host of issues has arisen that challenged the company's ethos.

But as it approaches middle age - by tech industry standards - a reevaluation may be in order. Google may have innocently - some would argue naively - set itself an impossible task. Others may assume that claiming the mantle of virtue was cynical attempt to seize competitive moral high ground that turned out to be a swamp. Whatever the case, the uniquely highminded nature of the precept has left Google open to criticism every since.

By comparison with industry fellow travelers like Microsoft or Facebook, Google's actions, even the most recent which have an engendered a storm of outrage, appear relatively commonplace, if not exactly benign. When stood up against those of BP or Goldman Sachs, they seem utterly unremarkable. Former US Secretary of State and eminent Cold Warrior John Foster Dulles once said that 'countries have interests, not friends.' And so it is with business. It may be too late for Google to take it back, but not too late for the rest of us to remember that - and to urge anyone contemplating a mission statement to keep it in mind. JL

Farhad Manjoo comments in PandoDaily (Hat tip Barry Ritholtz):

Early in 2000, a tiny but much-beloved search company held an employee meeting to figure out something that all successful firms feel they have to face at a certain point: What should we be about?

For most companies, the core-values conversation is a useless bit of corporate tedium that usually results a list of anodyne adjectives that most employees can’t remember, and that nobody would ever oppose. Microsoft’s core values favor “integrity, honesty, openness, personal excellence, constructive self-criticism, continual self-improvement and mutual respect.” That’s pretty similar to Procter & Gamble’s values—integrity, leadership, accountability, passion and trust—and, for that matter, Enron’s. (Communication, respect, integrity and excellence—hah!)Google might have ended up with a similarly drab list

Drive-Thru Dread: Fast Food Chains With the Unhealthiest Customers

People know fast food is unhealthy. And we know that they indulge anyway for a variety of reasons, not just - as popular myth has had it - that they are too poor or too ignorant to know better.

In fact, recent research has shown that the core fast food customer is relatively affluent. What we are now seeing is that these customers are unhappy about their health - and they know they should not behaving as they do. But it is easy, it is habitual - and it can be a comforting source of reassurance in an uncertain world.

What follows is a recent analysis of the demographics and relative health of the four chains with the least healthy customers. Read it in in the privacy of your cubicle or home. Share a grimace and a promise to do better. But don't worry: your secret is safe with us - we're right there ourselves. JL

Charles Stockdale reports in 24/7 Wall Street (Hat tip Huff Post):

While most Americans are happy with their family, friends and home life, more than one in five Americans are unhappy with their health. According to a new survey conducted by consumer-focused information site BIGinsight, those who frequent certain fast-food restaurants are even less happy with their health than the average American. 24/7 Wall St. examined the results of the survey to identify the fast-food chains with the most-unhealthy customers.

What Would Guttenberg Say? Facebook Attempts to Trademark 'Book.' Seriously.

Hey, they've already gone after the word 'face' and the letter 'F,' so why would they be ashamed of attempting the same trick with 'book?'

The barely-post-adolescent aggression captured so effectively by actor Jesse Eisenberg's portrayal of Mark Zuckerberg in 'The Social Network,'a characterization the company has taken great pains to dismiss, appears to be reasserting itself.

That the US Supreme Court and European Union appear determined to reject assertions that attempt to capture intellectual property that has long been in the public domain is not stopping Facebook. They have inserted the language into the standard Facebook users' agreement. No, there is no opt-out clause.

Such behavior can be a sign of heedless aggressiveness, fueled by too much Red Bull and an inflated sense of entitlement. Or it could be a sign of weakness. With an IPO scheduled amid lingering questions about monetization and growth prospects, trying to grab whatever isnt proverbially nailed down as a bulwark against future disappointments is a logical tactic. But in terms of protecting corporate reputation and avoiding ridicule, questions may be raised about its effectiveness as a strategy. JL

Jon Brodkin reports in Ars Technica (Hat tip Big Picture blog):

Facebook is trying to expand its trademark rights over the word "book" by adding the claim to a newly revised version of its "Statement of Rights and Responsibilities," the agreement all users implicitly consent to by using or accessing Facebook.

You may recall that Facebook has launched multiple lawsuits against websites incorporating the word "book" into their names. Facebook, as far as we can tell, doesn't have a registered trademark on "book." But trademark rights can be asserted based on use of a term, even if the trademark isn't registered, and adding the claim to Facebook's user agreement could boost the company's standing in future lawsuits filed against sites that use the word.

China Plays a Lead Role in Propping Up Hollywood

Well, to almost no one's surprise, except for a bunch of Hollywood studios, it turned out that adding 3D features to a bad movie still resulted in yes, you guessed it, a bad movie.

So the industry was on the brink of disaster, with theater admissions lower in 2011 than in 2002. A veritable Damsel in Distress. But demonstrating once again that it is sometimes better to be lucky than smart, a cavalry rode to the film industry's rescue at the last minute - and it turned out to be the 1.3 billion people of China.

With rising incomes, a new-found interest in popcorn and the addition, on average, of eight new screens a day, China is a force in film. Global admissions may soon be a more important bellwether of film success than the US box office, which has reigned supreme since talkies emerged and silent films ankled.

In yet another piece of impeccable timing, the new Chinese government leader, in his goodwill introductory tour of the US, met with the big studios' executives and signed an historic agreement to support film production in his country. Though touted as a significant market opening opportunity, the recent box office data reveal this to be what many had suspected: a capitulation by the industry in return for financing. The Chinese audience was already there when the agreement was signed. The studios knew it and so did the Chinese government.

It remains to be seen what impact this will have on selection of titles, locations, talent and technology transfer but the guessing it is it will not be leading to an increase of American jobs or industry profits. JL

Matthew Garrahan reports in the Financial Times:

US cinema admissions, which have fallen sharply over the past decade, dipped again in 2011 although sharp growth in international markets, particularly China, kept Hollywood growing, according to the Motion Picture Association of America.

There were 1.28bn cinema admissions in the US and Canada in 2011, compared with 1.57bn in 2002.

Hashtag Politics: Why Twitter Wont Predict the 2012 Election

Passion is getting a lot of attention this election year.

No, not as an issue or due to another scandal, but because the media are obsessed with measuring the relative 'passion' of candidates' supporters. And one of the factors chosen as a significant metric is 'mentions' on Twitter.

Innovation is great and the implications of new technology applications can be significant. But there is also a danger that enthusiasm can outweigh judgment - or that premature conclusions will lead to inaccurate assumptions. And that may be the case with Twitter.

It has proven to be an excellent organizing tool for campaigns seeking to inspire volunteers and drive crowds to rallies. Its effectiveness as a predictor of voting trends, however, turns out to be less than optimal. It is too early in the platform's history to draw definitive conclusions for the future, but the experience so far in 2012 is that Twitter mentions are not an accurate determinant of voters' preferences.

The media excitement about Twitter as a political tool is reminiscent of the wildly exaggerated claims for social media two and three years ago. It is new, interesting - and provides journalists with a new angle. But there is an old saying in politics from an earlier age, 'lawn signs don't vote.' And so far, neither do hashtags. JL

Kyle Leighton and David Taintor report in TPM:

Ask any political operative tasked with managing “presence” and volunteers in past campaigns what their biggest frustration is, and it’s usually not a contest. Lawn signs. Lawn signs, meet your digital replacement: Twitter.

“The old mantra is that lawn signs can’t vote,” Matt Canter, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told TPM. “The same applies to hashtags.”

The Solo Economy

Single - by choice and becoming a majority.

The US is 1.1% away from becoming a majority single nation. A record number of Americans are living by themselves and the demographics cut across demarcations of age and gender. The data suggest that this is primarily by choice, not the result of historical perceptions about divorce, widow(er)hood, unattractiveness or personality disorder. And the trend is becoming global, with Europe, China, Brazil and India among the trend's leaders.

There are those who decry this development as a troubling sign for society. But the data suggest something different: people who have the self-confidence - and means - to make lifestyle choices without regard to traditional norms. The internet and social media may have a role in this. No longer tethered to networks based on geographical location has freed individuals to seek support where they want to find it, not necessarily limited by historical boundaries.

This is one aspect of the disaggregation occurring across society in the past fifty years. One might surmise that there could be some cyclicality to it and that a limit will eventually be reached. But for the moment, business is profiting from the greater than average household spending of singles while those who have made the choice show every indication of being quite comfortable with the decision. JL

Eric Klinenberg reports in Fortune:

In 1957, University of Michigan psychology professors Joseph Veroff, Elizabeth Douvan, and Richard Kulka released a survey that examined American attitudes to being single. The findings were stark: 80% of those surveyed believed that people who preferred being unmarried were "sick," "immoral," or "neurotic." At a time when more than 70% of adults were married, it's not surprising that people would express a preference for wedded life. But the scorn certainly sounds jarring to contemporary ears.

Oh, how things have changed. Americans are now within mere percentage points of being a majority single nation: Only 51% of adults today are married, according to census data. And 28% of all households now consist of just one person -- the highest level in U.S. history. A record number of people in the U.S. now live by themselves -- and they spend $1.9 trillion a year. Businesses are beginning to take notice.

Reversal of Fortune: Brazil's Rising Consumer Class Finds US Is A Bargain

Instead of bemoaning their fate and rueing how the mighty have fallen, US business managers are awakening to the proposition that the brutal deleveraging they have endured for the past four years may contain the seeds of the American economy's revival.

From real estate to retail, the declining prices in the US are luring foreign buyers whose incomes are rising. And none have been more enthusiastic than those from Brazil. Brazilian shoppers are spending more per capita than those from any other country. Japan is a relatively distant second. The US consulate in Sao Paulo is the busiest in the world, receiving, on average, over 3,000 visa applications a day.

For American merchants, the new-found source of business is an unanticipated relief. With home and apartment prices mired in post-financial crisis doldrums, US household incomes stagnant and US consumers reticent to spend at pre-2008 levels, the impetus from Brazil is becoming noticeable. American businesses have historically been good at adjusting and adapting. But having endured the worst recession in almost a century, the recovery is taking longer than anticipated.

The US economy is consumer-driven, meaning that the bulk of GDP relies on consumer spending to fuel growth. Which translates into; any consumers are welcome. Especially if they are from a country in the same hemisphere, with a stable government, appreciating currency, growing income, an eye for quality and nose for a bargain. Sometimes you have to be down for a while to remember what up looks like. JL

The Associated Press reports:

The overstuffed bags filling Fernando Mello's luggage cart wobbled precariously as the gym owner made his way home one morning through Rio's international airport. Navigating the terminal, Mello was part of a horde of other Brazilian travelers returning with loot found in the strip malls and discount outlets of southern Florida.

Mello's girlfriend's freshly bought Michael Kors handbag in gold lame sat atop four bulging suitcases like a shining crown - a testament to the newfound consumer power of Brazilian travelers, who now spend more per capita than any other visitors to the U.S.

The Evolution of Death

That intersection of science and faith continues to confound us.

Traditional standards, based on centuries old experience, remain with us even though the stopping of the heart or even the more contemporary 'brain death' have become outmoded due to technology and advances in medical science.

Emotion, culture, religion and politics also play a role - just as they do in the debate over the beginning of life. A major issue is that like the accumulation of data on the internet, we know a lot - but have not yet figured out how to glean wisdom from knowledge. Notions like 'irreversibility' in determining death have become less certain. Organ death and cell death, it has been discovered, may occur at very different times.

As in many other fields of human endeavor, we are finding that we have to make important decisions with imperfect information under great pressure over inadequate periods of time. For the time being we will have to rely on our judgment, ethical mores and common human decency to arrive at an acceptable conclusion. Until a final determination of finality is agreed upon - if it ever is. JL

Dick Teresi reports in Salon (excerpted from his book 'The Undead'):

Most of us would agree that King Tut and the other mummified ancient Egyptians are dead, and that you and I are alive. Somewhere in between these two states lies the moment of death. But where is that? The old standby — and not such a bad standard — is the stopping of the heart. But the stopping of a heart is anything but irreversible. We’ve seen hearts start up again on their own inside the body, outside the body, even in someone else’s body. Christian Barnard was the first to show us that a heart could stop in one body and be fired up in another. Due to the mountain of evidence to the contrary, it is comical to consider that “brain death” marks the moment of legal death in all fifty states.

Scientists remain surprisingly conflicted about what it means to die - and that has big implications for us all.